Surveillance of COVID-19 outbreaks in prisons in the US South: The role of economic distress in the communities surrounding prison facilities.

Introduction: The US South is the epicenter of the epidemic of mass incarceration. Prisons have experienced substantial challenges in preventing COVID-19. Incarcerated individuals and prison staff are at a high risk for infection due to minimal available preventive measures. Prisons are not closed systems and many staff come from communities in close proximity to the facility. Characteristics of the communities immediately surrounding prisons are an overlooked but critical factor to better understand the role prisons play in pandemics. Methods: We used facility-level COVID-19 data from the COVID Prison Project to identify the number of unique outbreaks between May 2019 and May 2020. We used a county-level composite indicator of economic distress (DCI score) to identify the environment surrounding each prison (2015-2019). We modeled the number of outbreaks to DCI scores using negative binomial regression, adjusting for race/ethnicity (African American and Latino/Hispanic), age (65 and older), and rurality level. Results: Our sample included 570 prisons in 368 counties across 13 Southern states. We found that score was positively and significantly associated with prison COVID-19 outbreaks (aRR, 1.012;