ArticlePloS one2022
Sensitivity analysis on the declining population in Japan: Effects of prefecture-specific fertility and interregional migration.
Article in PloS one, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Regional and patient characteristic disparities in the outcomes of minimally invasive surgery for colorectal cancer in Japan.Annals of gastroenterological surgery · 2025Article
- Digital insights: Analyzing the reproductive intentions and influencing factors among urban women in China through online platforms.PloS one · 2025Article
- Trends and characteristics of fertility-sparing treatment for atypical endometrial hyperplasia and endometrial cancer in Japan: a survey by the Gynecologic Oncology Committee of the Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.Journal of gynecologic oncology · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
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Abstract
Japan has been facing a population decline since 2010 due to low birth rates, interregional migration, and regional traits. In this study, we modeled the demographic dynamics of Japan using a transition matrix model. Then, from the mathematical structure of the model, we quantitatively evaluated the domestic factors of population decline. To achieve this, we constructed a multi-regional Leslie matrix model and developed a method for representing the reproductive value and stable age distribution using matrix entries. Our method enabled us to interpret the mathematical indices using the genealogies of the migration history of individuals and their ancestors. Furthermore, by combining our method with sensitivity analysis, we analyzed the effect of region-specific fertility rates and interregional migration rates on the population decline in Japan. We found that the sensitivity of the population growth rate to the migration rate from urban areas with large populations to prefectures with high fertility rates was greatest for people aged under 30. In addition, compared to other areas, the fertility rates of urban areas exhibited higher sensitivity for people aged over 30. Because this feature is robust in comparison with those in 2010 and 2015, it can be said to be a unique structure in Japan in recent years. We also established a method to represent the reproductive value and stable age distribution in an irreducible non-negative matrix population model by using the matrix entries. Furthermore, we show the effects of fertility and migration rates numerically in urban and non-urban areas on the population growth rates for each age group in a society with a declining population.
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