ArticleBMJ open2022
Estimating deaths averted and cost per life saved by scaling up mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in low-income and lower-middle-income countries in the COVID-19 Omicron variant era: a modelling study.
Article in BMJ open, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 42 citations in OpenAlex.
- Economic Evaluation of COVID-19 Immunization Strategies: A Systematic Review and Narrative Synthesis.Applied health economics and health policy · 2024Pooled it
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Costs and benefits of replacing preventive antenatal iron and folic acid with multiple micronutrients in 25 low- and middle-income countries.BMJ global health · 2026Article
- Characterization of Vaccine-Enhanced Humoral Immune Responses Against Emergent SARS-CoV-2 Variants in a Convalescent Cohort.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Various Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Vaccines against Emerging Variants of Concern in the Philippines.Acta medica Philippina · 2025Article
- Reduced cross-protective potential of Omicron compared to ancestral SARS-CoV-2 spike vaccines against potentially zoonotic coronaviruses.Npj viruses · 2024Article
- Estimated Deaths Averted in Adults by COVID-19 Vaccination in Select Latin American and Caribbean Countries.Open forum infectious diseases · 2024Article
- COVID-19 Vaccination and Public Health: Addressing Global, Regional, and Within-Country Inequalities.Vaccines · 2024Review
- Understanding theFrontiers in parasitology · 2024Review
- Interstitial lung disease following COVID-19 vaccination: a disproportionality analysis using the Global Scale Pharmacovigilance Database (VigiBase).BMJ open respiratory research · 2023Article
- COVAX - Time to reconsider the strategy and its target.Health policy OPEN · 2023Article
- Review
- Dynamics of Serum-Neutralizing Antibody Responses in Vaccinees through Multiple Doses of the BNT162b2 Vaccine.Vaccines · 2023Article
- Key Considerations during the Transition from the Acute Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Narrative Review.Vaccines · 2023Review
- Blood pressure pattern among blood donors exposed to SARS-CoV-2 in Luanda, Angola: A retrospective study.Health science reports · 2023Article
- Review
- Article
- Critical Review Two-Years Thereafter of the Effectiveness of the Revolutionary Changes in a Gastroenterology Division at A Medical School Teaching Hospital in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Medical School, Residency, and Gastrointestinal Fellowship Education and Clinical Practice of Gastroenterology Attendings and Gastrointestinal Endoscopy.Gastroenterology clinics of North America · 2023Review
- A Critical Review from the Perspective of 2 Years Thereafter of the Effectiveness of Revolutionary Changes in a Gastroenterology Division at a Medical School Teaching Hospital due to the Coronavirus Disease-2019 Pandemic: Gastrointestinal Physician Clinical Practice and Emotional Stresses, Gastrointestinal Graduate Medical Education, Gastrointestinal Professional Societies, and Pandemic Control.Gastroenterology clinics of North America · 2023Review
- Does natural and hybrid immunity obviate the need for frequent vaccine boosters against SARS-CoV-2 in the endemic phase?European journal of clinical investigation · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 5 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesWhile almost 60% of the world has received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, the global distribution of vaccination has not been equitable. Only 4% of the population of low-income countries (LICs) has received a full primary vaccine series, compared with over 70% of the population of high-income nations.
designWe used economic and epidemiological models, parameterised with public data on global vaccination and COVID-19 deaths, to estimate the potential benefits of scaling up vaccination programmes in LICs and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) in 2022 in the context of global spread of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV2.
settingLow-income and lower-middle-income nations.
main outcome measuresOutcomes were expressed as number of avertable deaths through vaccination, costs of scale-up and cost per death averted. We conducted sensitivity analyses over a wide range of parameter estimates to account for uncertainty around key inputs.
findingsGlobally, universal vaccination in LIC/LMIC with three doses of an mRNA vaccine would result in an estimated 1.5 million COVID-19 deaths averted with a total estimated cost of US$61 billion and an estimated cost-per-COVID-19 death averted of US$40 800 (sensitivity analysis range: US$7400-US$81 500). Lower estimated infection fatality ratios, higher cost-per-dose and lower vaccine effectiveness or uptake lead to higher cost-per-death averted estimates in the analysis.
conclusionsScaling up COVID-19 global vaccination would avert millions of COVID-19 deaths and represents a reasonable investment in the context of the value of a statistical life. Given the magnitude of expected mortality facing LIC/LMIC without vaccination, this effort should be an urgent priority.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.