ArticleTobacco control2024
Projecting the impact of implementation of WHO MPOWER measures on smoking prevalence and mortality in Japan.
Article in Tobacco control, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Japan's global health engagement in the Western Pacific: diagnosing structural inertia and a framework for human security diplomacy.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2026Review
- Current and projected trends in rheumatoid arthritis among postmenopausal women in the U.S.: a population-based analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, with projections to 2035.Immunologic research · 2026Article
- Observational
- Democracy, gender equality, advanced civil rights, economic welfare, and equitable distribution of wealth are related to the success of tobacco control.Tobacco induced diseases · 2026Article
- Knowledge and Concerns About Smoking-Related Health Risks: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of the 2021 International Tobacco Control Japan and Korea Surveys.Drug and alcohol review · 2025Article
- Birth cohort-specific smoking patterns in Japan (1906-2004): a population-based study from the NC-CCAPH consortium.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- MPOWER Tobacco Control Policies' Effects on Lip and Oral Cavity Cancer Trends in MERCOSUR Countries.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveThis study aimed to quantify the long-term impact of implementing the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) compliant tobacco control measures, MPOWER, on smoking prevalence and mortality in men and women aged ≥20 years in Japan.
designA Stock-and-Flow simulation model was used to project smoking prevalence and mortality from 2018 to 2050 under eight different scenarios: (1) maintaining the 2018 status quo, (2) implementation of smoke-free policies, (3) tobacco use cessation programmes, (4-5) health warning about the dangers of tobacco (labels, mass media), (6) enforcement of tobacco advertising bans or (7) tobacco taxation at the highest recommended level and (8) all these interventions combined.
resultsUnder the status quo, the smoking prevalence in Japan will decrease from 29.6% to 15.5% in men and 8.3% to 4.7% in women by 2050. Full implementation of MPOWER will accelerate this trend, dropping the prevalence to 10.6% in men and 3.2% in women, and save nearly a quarter million deaths by 2050. This reduction implies that Japan will only attain the current national target of 12% overall smoking prevalence in 2033, 8 years earlier than it would with the status quo (in 2041), a significant delay from the national government's 2022 deadline.
conclusionsTo bring forward the elimination of tobacco smoking and substantially reduce smoking-related deaths, the government of Japan should fulfil its commitment to the FCTC and adopt stringent tobacco control measures delineated by MPOWER and beyond.
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