ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2022
Mathematical modeling of the dynamics of COVID-19 variants of concern: Asymptotic and finite-time perspectives.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Survey on mathematical modeling of infectious disease dynamics: insights and applications.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Review
- Using a multi-strain infectious disease model with physical information neural networks to study the time dependence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Wastewater surveillance monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and dynamics of transmission and community burden of COVID-19.Emerging microbes & infections · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has seen multiple waves, in part due to the implementation and relaxation of social distancing measures by the public health authorities around the world, and also caused by the emergence of new variants of concern (VOCs) of the SARS-Cov-2 virus. As the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to transition into an endemic state, how to manage outbreaks caused by newly emerging VOCs has become one of the primary public health issues. Using mathematical modeling tools, we investigated the dynamics of VOCs, both in a general theoretical framework and based on observations from public health data of past COVID-19 waves, with the objective of understanding key factors that determine the dominance and coexistence of VOCs. Our results show that the transmissibility advantage of a new VOC is a main factor for it to become dominant. Additionally, our modeling study indicates that the initial number of people infected with the new VOC plays an important role in determining the size of the epidemic. Our results also support the evidence that public health measures targeting the newly emerging VOC taken in the early phase of its spread can limit the size of the epidemic caused by the new VOC (Wu et al., 2139Wu, Scarabel, Majeed, Bragazzi, & Orbinski, ; Wu et al., 2021).
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