ArticleFrontiers in public health2022
Predicting malaria outbreaks from sea surface temperature variability up to 9 months ahead in Limpopo, South Africa, using machine learning.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 28 citations in OpenAlex.
- A systematic review investigating emerging trends between Extreme Weather Events (EWEs) and infectious disease outbreaks in South Africa.Frontiers in public health · 2026Pooled it
- Advances in mosquito-borne disease surveillance using machine learning.New microbes and new infections · 2026Article
- Tropical oceans drive variability in soil moisture and malaria in Malawi.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Application of a Temporal Fusion Transformer and Long-Term Climate and Disease Data to Assess the Predictive Power and Understand the Drivers for Malaria and Dengue.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026Article
- Environmental Factors That Regulate Mosquito Physiology and Behavior.Annual review of entomology · 2026Review
- A Machine Learning-Based Dynamic SST Index for Long-Lead Malaria Prediction in the Peruvian Amazon.GeoHealth · 2026Article
- Potential of coconut oil as a mosquito repellent.Tropical medicine and health · 2025Article
- Hybrid models combining trend and seasonality components with machine learning algorithms provide accurate forecasting of malaria incidence.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Use of artificial intelligence in healthcare in South Africa: A scoping review.Health SA = SA Gesondheid · 2025Review
- Advancing Early Warning Systems for Malaria: Progress, challenges, and future directions - A scoping review.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Utilizing a novel high-resolution malaria dataset for climate-informed predictions with a deep learning transformer model.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Predicting maximum temperatures over India 10-days ahead using machine learning models.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018.Malaria journal · 2023Article
- Towards malaria elimination: analysis of travel history and case forecasting using the SARIMA model in Limpopo Province.Parasitology research · 2023Article
- Malaria's modelling problem.Nature · 2023Article
- Article
- Specialist hybrid models with asymmetric training for malaria prevalence prediction.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Malaria is the cause of nearly half a million deaths worldwide each year, posing a great socioeconomic burden. Despite recent progress in understanding the influence of climate on malaria infection rates, climatic sources of predictability remain poorly understood and underexploited. Local weather variability alone provides predictive power at short lead times of 1-2 months, too short to adequately plan intervention measures. Here, we show that tropical climatic variability and associated sea surface temperature over the Pacific and Indian Oceans are valuable for predicting malaria in Limpopo, South Africa, up to three seasons ahead. Climatic precursors of malaria outbreaks are first identified
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