Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36087860›Full record

ArticleJournal of thoracic oncology : official publication of the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer2022

Stage Migration and Lung Cancer Incidence After Initiation of Low-Dose Computed Tomography Screening.

Anil Vachani, Nikki M Carroll, Michael J Simoff, Christine Neslund-Dudas, Stacey Honda, Robert T Greenlee, Katharine A Rendle, Andrea Burnett-Hartman, Debra P Ritzwoller

Open access · bronzeAbstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of thoracic oncology : official publication of the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 45 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
45citing papers in PubMed
9.6field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

45 citing papers in PubMed, 66 citations in OpenAlex.

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  18. Lung Cancer Outcomes in Vietnam: A 6-Year Retrospective Study.Journal of immunotherapy and precision oncology · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.

Anil VachaniPerelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Electronic address: avachani@pennmedicine.upenn.edu.
Nikki M CarrollInstitute for Health Research, Kaiser Permanente Colorado, Aurora, Colorado.
Michael J SimoffHenry Ford Health System and Henry Ford Cancer Institute, Detroit, Michigan.
Christine Neslund-DudasHenry Ford Health System and Henry Ford Cancer Institute, Detroit, Michigan.
Stacey HondaCenter for Integrated Healthcare Research, Kaiser Permanente Hawaii, Oahu, Hawaii.
Robert T GreenleeMarshfield Clinic Research Institute, Marshfield, Wisconsin.
Katharine A RendlePerelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Andrea Burnett-HartmanInstitute for Health Research, Kaiser Permanente Colorado, Aurora, Colorado.
Debra P RitzwollerInstitute for Health Research, Kaiser Permanente Colorado, Aurora, Colorado.
Kaiser Permanente · USHenry Ford Health System · USUniversity of Pennsylvania · USMarshfield Clinic · US

Funding

Translational Research Support CoreP30ES013508 · NIEHS · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI Rebecca A Simmons · 2006 to 2026
$35.3M
Center for Research to Optimize Precision Lung Cancer Screening in Diverse PopulationsUM1CA221939 · NCI · KAISER FOUNDATION RESEARCH INSTITUTE · PI RITZWOLLER, DEBRA P, VACHANI, ANIL · 2018 to 2023
$15.3M
NCI NIH HHS UM1 CA221939NIEHS NIH HHS P30 ES013508
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionDespite evidence from clinical trials of favorable shifts in cancer stage and improvements in lung cancer-specific mortality, the effectiveness of lung cancer screening (LCS) in clinical practice has not been clearly revealed.

methodsWe performed a multicenter cohort study of patients diagnosed with a primary lung cancer between January 1, 2014, and September 30, 2019, at one of four U.S. health care systems. The primary outcome variables were cancer stage distribution and annual age-adjusted lung cancer incidence. The primary exposure variable was receipt of at least one low-dose computed tomography for LCS before cancer diagnosis.

resultsA total of 3678 individuals were diagnosed with an incident lung cancer during the study period; 404 (11%) of these patients were diagnosed after initiation of LCS. As screening volume increased, the proportion of patients diagnosed with lung cancer after LCS initiation also rose from 0% in the first quartile of 2014 to 20% in the third quartile of 2019. LCS did not result in a significant change in the overall incidence of lung cancer (average annual percentage change [AAPC]: -0.8 [95% confidence interval (CI): -4.7 to 3.2]) between 2014 and 2018. Stage-specific incidence rates increased for stage I cancer (AAPC = 8.0 [95% CI: 0.8-15.7]) and declined for stage IV disease (AAPC = -6.0 [95% CI: -11.2 to -0.5]).

conclusionsImplementation of LCS at four diverse health care systems has resulted in a favorable shift to a higher incidence of stage I cancer with an associated decline in stage IV disease. Overall lung cancer incidence did not increase, suggesting a limited impact of overdiagnosis.

Indexed as

Early Detection of CancerLung NeoplasmsCohort StudiesHumansIncidenceMass ScreeningTomography, X-Ray ComputedCancer incidenceLung cancerScreeningStage migration

Identifiers

PMID36087860
PMCPMC9703625
OpenAlexW4295014087

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.