Beyond Chronological Age: A Multidimensional Approach to Survival Prediction in Older Adults.

backgroundThere is a growing interest in generating precise predictions of survival to improve the assessment of health and life-improving interventions. We aimed to (a) test if observable characteristics may provide a survival prediction independent of chronological age; (b) identify the most relevant predictors of survival; and (c) build a metric of multidimensional age.

methodsData from 3 095 individuals aged ≥60 from the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen. Eighty-three variables covering 5 domains (diseases, risk factors, sociodemographics, functional status, and blood tests) were tested in penalized Cox regressions to predict 18-year mortality.

resultsThe best prediction of mortality at different follow-ups (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves [AUROCs] 0.878-0.909) was obtained when 15 variables from all 5 domains were tested simultaneously in a penalized Cox regression. Significant prediction improvements were observed when chronological age was included as a covariate for 15- but not for 5- and 10-year survival. When comparing individual domains, we find that a combination of functional characteristics (ie, gait speed, cognition) gave the most accurate prediction, with estimates similar to chronological age for 5- (AUROC 0.836) and 10-year (AUROC 0.830) survival. Finally, we built a multidimensional measure of age by regressing the predicted mortality risk on chronological age, which displayed a stronger correlation with time to death (R = -0.760) than chronological age (R = -0.660) and predicted mortality better than widely used geriatric indices.

conclusionsCombining easily accessible characteristics can help in building highly accurate survival models and multidimensional age metrics with potentially broad geriatric and biomedical applications.