One-hour plasma glucose as a long-term predictor of cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in a Chinese older male population without diabetes: A 20-year retrospective and prospective study.

Introduction: Elevated one-hour plasma glucose (1 h-PG) during oral glucose tolerance test predicts the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its complications. However, to date, there have been no studies investigating the predictive values of 1 h-PG for the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and all-cause mortality in the elderly population in China. This study aimed to evaluate and compare the effectiveness of 1 h-PG and two-hour plasma glucose (2 h-PG) to predict the risk of CVD and all-cause mortality in the Chinese elderly population. Materials and methods: This retrospective and prospective cohort study was conducted using data obtained from the Chinese People's Liberation Army General Hospital. All the non-diabetic elderly participants, who had plasma glucose measured at 0, 1, and 2 h during an OGTT (75 g glucose), were followed for 20 years. The primary outcomes were all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, unstable angina, and stroke. Multivariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression models were performed to examine the association between risk factors and outcomes and to estimate the risk of CVD and all-cause mortality based on 1 h-PG levels. Results: A total of 862 non-diabetic male individuals were included. The median age was 74.0 (25th-75th percentile: 68.0-79.0) years. There were 480 CVD events and 191 deaths during 15,527 person-years of follow-up. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1 h-PG as a continuous variable was 1.097 (95% CI 1.027-1.172; Conclusion: Patients with higher 1 h-PG had a significantly increased risk of CVD and all-cause mortality regardless of prediabetes status or development of diabetes at follow-up. The 1 h-PG level might be a better predictor of cardiovascular risk than the 2 h-PG level for the Chinese elderly population.