ArticleHealth systems (Basingstoke, England)2016
Sensitivity to model structure: a comparison of compartmental models in epidemiology.
Article in Health systems (Basingstoke, England), 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Drivers of the likelihood of evolutionary rescue in response to novel infectious diseases.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Effective mathematical modelling of health passes during a pandemic.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Establishing an SEIR-based framework for local modelling of COVID-19 infections, hospitalisations and deaths.Health systems (Basingstoke, England) · 2021Article
- Assessing the potential impact of transmission during prolonged viral shedding on the effect of lockdown relaxation on COVID-19.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
- Article
- Structural Sensitivity in HIV Modeling: A Case Study of Vaccination.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2017Article
- Improving our forecasts for trachoma elimination: What else do we need to know?PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Compartmental models have provided a framework for understanding disease transmission dynamics for over 100 years. The predictions from these models are often policy relevant and need to be robust to model assumptions, parameter values and model structure. A selection of compartmental models with the same parameter values but different model structures (ranging from simple structures to complex ones) were compared in the absence and presence of several policy interventions to assess sensitivity to model structure. Models were fitted to data to assess if this might reduce this sensitivity. The compartmental models produced wide-ranging estimates of outcome measures but when fitted to data, the estimates obtained were robust to model structure. This finding suggests that there may be an argument for selecting simple models over complex ones, but the complexity of the model should be determined by the purpose of the model and the use to which it will be put.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.