ArticleNature communications2022
Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction.
Article in Nature communications, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed.
- Regime shifts of AMOC-sea surface temperature relationship.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Multi-centennial internal variability in the North Atlantic could drive additional warming over Europe.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Recent and early 20th century destabilization of the subpolar North Atlantic recorded in bivalves.Science advances · 2025Article
- The Forest After Tomorrow: Projecting the Impact of a Collapsing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on European Tree-Species Distributions.Global change biology · 2025Article
- Monitoring the Multiple Stages of Climate Tipping Systems from Space: Do the GCOS Essential Climate Variables Meet the Needs?Surveys in geophysics · 2025Review
- Simulated millennial-scale climate variability driven by a convection-advection oscillator.Climate dynamics · 2025Article
- Opportunities for Earth Observation to Inform Risk Management for Ocean Tipping Points.Surveys in geophysics · 2025Review
- Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from historical data.Science advances · 2024Article
- Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation.Science advances · 2024Article
- Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales.Nature communications · 2024Review
- Uncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Reliability of vegetation resilience estimates depends on biomass density.Nature ecology & evolution · 2023Article
- Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.Nature communications · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Atlantic multidecadal variability is a coherent mode of natural climate variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean, with strong impacts on human societies and ecosystems worldwide. However, its periodicity and drivers are widely debated due to the short temporal extent of instrumental observations and competing effects of both internal and external climate factors acting on North Atlantic surface temperature variability. Here, we use a paleoclimate database and an advanced statistical framework to generate, evaluate, and compare 312 reconstructions of the Atlantic multidecadal variability over the past millennium, based on different indices and regression methods. From this process, the best reconstruction is obtained with the random forest method, and its robustness is checked using climate model outputs and independent oceanic paleoclimate data. This reconstruction shows that memory in variations of Atlantic multidecadal variability have strongly increased recently-a potential early warning signal for the approach of a North Atlantic tipping point.
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