ArticleArthritis & rheumatology (Hoboken, N.J.)2023
Development and External Validation of a Model Predicting New-Onset Chronic Uveitis at Different Disease Durations in Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis.
Article in Arthritis & rheumatology (Hoboken, N.J.), 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 7 citations in OpenAlex.
- Trends in New Use of Disease-Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs for Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis Among Commercially Insured Children in the United States from 2001 to 2022.Arthritis & rheumatology (Hoboken, N.J.) · 2025Article
- Integration of Genetic and Clinical Risk Factors for Risk Classification of Uveitis in Patients With Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis.Arthritis & rheumatology (Hoboken, N.J.) · 2024Article
- Diagnosis and Management of Non-Infectious Uveitis in Pediatric Patients.Paediatric drugs · 2024Review
- Article
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Authors and funding
22 authors at 16 institutions in 8 countries.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveTo develop and externally validate a prediction model for new-onset chronic uveitis in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) for clinical application.
methodsData from the international Pharmachild registry were used to develop a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model. Predictors were selected by backward selection, and missing values were handled by multiple imputation. The model was subsequently validated and recalibrated in 2 inception cohorts: the UK Childhood Arthritis Prospective Study (CAPS) study and the German Inception Cohort of Newly diagnosed patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (ICON) study. Model performance was evaluated by calibration plots and C statistics for the 2-, 4-, and 7-year risk of uveitis. A diagram and digital risk calculator were created for use in clinical practice.
resultsA total of 5,393 patients were included for model development, and predictor variables were age at JIA onset (hazard ratio [HR] 0.83 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.77-0.89]), ANA positivity (HR 1.59 [95% CI 1.06-2.38]), and International League of Associations for Rheumatology category of JIA (HR for oligoarthritis, psoriatic arthritis, and undifferentiated arthritis versus rheumatoid factor-negative polyarthritis 1.40 [95% CI 0.91-2.16]). Performance of the recalibrated prediction model in the validation cohorts was acceptable; calibration plots indicated good calibration and C statistics for the 7-year risk of uveitis (0.75 [95% CI 0.72-0.79] for the ICON cohort and 0.70 [95% CI 0.64-0.76] for the CAPS cohort).
conclusionWe present for the first time a validated prognostic tool for easily predicting chronic uveitis risk for individual JIA patients using common clinical parameters. This model could be used by clinicians to inform patients/parents and provide guidance in choice of uveitis screening frequency and arthritis drug therapy.
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