Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36045430›Full record

ArticleTropical diseases, travel medicine and vaccines2022

Estimating social contacts in mass gatherings for disease outbreak prevention and management: case of Hajj pilgrimage.

Mohammadali Tofighi, Ali Asgary, Ghassem Tofighi, Mahdi M Najafabadi, Julien Arino, Amine Amiche, Ashrafur Rahman, Zachary McCarthy, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Edward Thommes and 4 more

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Article in Tropical diseases, travel medicine and vaccines, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

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0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Mohammadali TofighiYork University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, ON, M3J1P3, Canada. tofighim@yorku.ca.
Ali AsgaryYork University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, ON, M3J1P3, Canada.
Ghassem TofighiYork University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, ON, M3J1P3, Canada.
Mahdi M NajafabadiYork University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, ON, M3J1P3, Canada.
Julien ArinoUniversity of Manitoba, Manitoba, Canada.
Amine Amiche, Sanofi, Canada.
Ashrafur RahmanOakland University, Rochester, USA.
Zachary McCarthyYork University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, ON, M3J1P3, Canada.
Nicola Luigi BragazziYork University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, ON, M3J1P3, Canada.
Edward ThommesYork University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, ON, M3J1P3, Canada.
Laurent Coudeville, Sanofi, Canada.
Martin David GrunnillYork University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, ON, M3J1P3, Canada.
Lydia BourouibaMassachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA.
Jianhong WuYork University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, ON, M3J1P3, Canada.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundMost mass gathering events have been suspended due to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, with vaccination rollout, whether and how to organize some of these mass gathering events arises as part of the pandemic recovery discussions, and this calls for decision support tools. The Hajj, one of the world's largest religious gatherings, was substantively scaled down in 2020 and 2021 and it is still unclear how it will take place in 2022 and subsequent years. Simulating disease transmission dynamics during the Hajj season under different conditions can provide some insights for better decision-making. Most disease risk assessment models require data on the number and nature of possible close contacts between individuals.

methodsWe sought to use integrated agent-based modeling and discrete events simulation techniques to capture risky contacts among the pilgrims and assess different scenarios in one of the Hajj major sites, namely Masjid-Al-Haram.

resultsThe simulation results showed that a plethora of risky contacts may occur during the rituals. Also, as the total number of pilgrims increases at each site, the number of risky contacts increases, and physical distancing measures may be challenging to maintain beyond a certain number of pilgrims in the site.

conclusionsThis study presented a simulation tool that can be relevant for the risk assessment of a variety of (respiratory) infectious diseases, in addition to COVID-19 in the Hajj season. This tool can be expanded to include other contributing elements of disease transmission to quantify the risk of the mass gathering events.

Indexed as

Agent-Based SimulationAnyLogicCOVID-19Disease TransmissionHajjMass gatheringSocial Contacts

Identifiers

PMID36045430
PMCPMC9433139

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.