ArticleJournal of the National Cancer Institute2022
Incidence of in Situ vs Invasive Melanoma: Testing the "Obligate Precursor" Hypothesis.
Article in Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 47 citations in OpenAlex.
- A systematic review of microsimulation models for skin cancer.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2025Pooled it
- Re: Rates of Self-Reported Skin Cancer in Current and Retired Elite Australian Cricketers.The Australasian journal of dermatology · 2026Article
- Interleukin-1β Gene (Current oncology (Toronto, Ont.) · 2026Article
- Overdiagnosis of Melanoma In Situ.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Review
- Rates of Self-Reported Skin Cancer in Current and Retired Elite Australian Cricketers.The Australasian journal of dermatology · 2026Article
- Local Recurrence and Survival in Patients With Melanoma In Situ.JAMA dermatology · 2025Article
- Screening and novel diagnostic technologies for melanoma: an update.Melanoma management · 2025Review
- Dermal Melanocytes Detectability for DistinguishingCurrent medicinal chemistry · 2025Review
- Article
- Identification of novel disulfidptosis-related lncRNA signatures to predict the prognosis and immune microenvironment of skin cutaneous melanoma patients.Skin research and technology : official journal of International Society for Bioengineering and the Skin (ISBS) [and] International Society for Digital Imaging of Skin (ISDIS) [and] International Society for Skin Imaging (ISSI) · 2024Article
- Continuing benefits of the Montreal Protocol and protection of the stratospheric ozone layer for human health and the environment.Photochemical & photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology · 2024Article
- Article
- Overdiagnosis in Melanoma Screening: Is It a Real Problem?Dermatology practical & conceptual · 2023Article
- Review
- Advances in melanoma: epidemiology, diagnosis, and prognosis.Frontiers in medicine · 2023Review
- Obligate and Potential Precursors of Melanoma.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2022Article
- Systematic Automated Population-Based Surveillance to Improve Outcomes in Primary Cutaneous Melanoma.Journal of primary care & community healthArticle
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundMelanoma incidence has been rising in populations with predominantly European ancestry (White), speculated to be partly driven by heightened detection of indolent tumors. If in situ melanomas are destined to evolve to invasive cancers, detecting and removing them should deplete the pool of invasive lesions, and people with in situ melanoma should, on average, be younger than those with invasive melanoma.
methodsWe analyzed long-term incidence trends (1982-2018) for in situ and invasive melanomas in 3 predominantly White populations with high, medium, and low melanoma rates: Queensland (Australia), United States White, and Scotland. We calculated the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of in situ to invasive melanomas and estimated the contributions of age, period, and cohort effects. We compared age at diagnosis of in situ vs invasive melanomas overall and stratified by sex and anatomic site.
resultsIn all 3 populations, the in situ to invasive incidence rate ratio increased statistically significantly from less than 0.3 in 1982 to 1.95 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.88 to 2.02) in Queensland, 0.93 (95% CI = 0.90 to 0.96) in the US White population, and 0.58 (95% CI = 0.54 to 0.63) in Scotland in 2018. The mean age at diagnosis of in situ melanomas was the same or higher than invasive melanomas for almost all time periods among men and women and on all body sites except the lower limbs.
conclusionsThe increasing ratio of in situ to invasive melanoma incidence over time, together with the high (and increasing) mean age at diagnosis of in situ melanomas, is consistent with more indolent lesions coming to clinical attention than in previous eras.
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