ArticlePLoS computational biology2022
Reconstructing the course of the COVID-19 epidemic over 2020 for US states and counties: Results of a Bayesian evidence synthesis model.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers.
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Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed.
- Estimating vaccine efficacy during open-label follow-up of COVID-19 vaccine trials based on population-level surveillance data.Epidemics · 2024Trial
- Quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics of the first two epidemic waves of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Model-based clustering of time-dependent observations with common structural changes.Statistics and computing · 2026Article
- Estimating Population Immunity and Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in Washington State and Oregon.Open forum infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Integrated Analysis of the 2022 SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Lineage Replacement Dynamics in Connecticut, US.Viruses · 2025Article
- Using Surveillance Data to Estimate Infectious Disease Burden: Opportunities and Challenges.American journal of public health · 2025Article
- From Emergence to Evolution: Dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant in Florida.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Predictive power of wastewater for nowcasting infectious disease transmission: A retrospective case study of five sewershed areas in Louisville, Kentucky.Environmental research · 2024Article
- Infectious disease surveillance needs for the United States: lessons from Covid-19.Frontiers in public health · 2024Review
- Survey of white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus) in Connecticut, USA reveals low SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and infection with divergent betacoronaviruses.Npj viruses · 2023Article
- Mass gatherings for political expression had no discernible association with the local course of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA in 2020 and 2021.Nature human behaviour · 2023Article
- Changes in Population Immunity Against Infection and Severe Disease From Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Omicron Variants in the United States Between December 2021 and November 2022.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2023Article
- Accounting for assay performance when estimating the temporal dynamics in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in the U.S.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Population-Level Relative Effectiveness of the COVID-19 Vaccines and the Contribution of Naturally Acquired Immunity.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Population Immunity to Pre-Omicron and Omicron Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Variants in US States and Counties Through 1 December 2021.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2023Article
- Changes in population immunity against infection and severe disease from SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants in the United States between December 2021 and November 2022.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2022Article
- A framework for reconstructing SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics using excess mortality data.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Rapid emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant is associated with an infection advantage over Delta in vaccinated persons.Med (New York, N.Y.) · 2022Article
- Comparative transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 variants Delta and Alpha in New England, USA.Cell reports. Medicine · 2022Article
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Abstract
Reported COVID-19 cases and deaths provide a delayed and incomplete picture of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States (US). Accurate estimates of both the timing and magnitude of infections are needed to characterize viral transmission dynamics and better understand COVID-19 disease burden. We estimated time trends in SARS-CoV-2 transmission and other COVID-19 outcomes for every county in the US, from the first reported COVID-19 case in January 13, 2020 through January 1, 2021. To do so we employed a Bayesian modeling approach that explicitly accounts for reporting delays and variation in case ascertainment, and generates daily estimates of incident SARS-CoV-2 infections on the basis of reported COVID-19 cases and deaths. The model is freely available as the covidestim R package. Nationally, we estimated there had been 49 million symptomatic COVID-19 cases and 404,214 COVID-19 deaths by the end of 2020, and that 28% of the US population had been infected. There was county-level variability in the timing and magnitude of incidence, with local epidemiological trends differing substantially from state or regional averages, leading to large differences in the estimated proportion of the population infected by the end of 2020. Our estimates of true COVID-19 related deaths are consistent with independent estimates of excess mortality, and our estimated trends in cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection are consistent with trends in seroprevalence estimates from available antibody testing studies. Reconstructing the underlying incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections across US counties allows for a more granular understanding of disease trends and the potential impact of epidemiological drivers.
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