ArticleJournal of medical virology2023
Estimating the undetected infections in the Monkeypox outbreak.
Article in Journal of medical virology, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Estimating the prevalence of Monkeypox among men who have sex with men in a major city in Southwest China, since 2023 via capture-recapture methods.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Revealing the complex dynamics of monkeypox epidemics in heterogeneous networks by the evolutionary game theory.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Update of the Genetic Variability of Monkeypox Virus Clade IIb Lineage B.1.Microorganisms · 2024Article
- Behavioral game of quarantine during the monkeypox epidemic: Analysis of deterministic and fractional order approach.Heliyon · 2024Article
- Viral genetic clustering and transmission dynamics of the 2022 mpox outbreak in Portugal.Nature medicine · 2023Article
- Progress and prospects on vaccine development against monkeypox infection.Microbial pathogenesis · 2023Review
- Mpox: Fifty-Nine Consecutive Cases from a Mexican Public Hospital; Just the Tip of the STIs Iceberg.Infectious disease reports · 2023Article
- Detection of Asymptomatic Mpox Carriers among High-Ri Men Who Have Sex with Men: A Prospective Analysis.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Evaluating undercounts in epidemics: Response to Maruotti et al. (2022).Journal of medical virology · 2023Article
- Estimating the undetected infections in the Monkeypox outbreak.Journal of medical virology · 2023Article
- Potentially Asymptomatic Infection of Monkeypox Virus: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Vaccines · 2022Review
- Genetic Variability of the Monkeypox Virus Clade IIb B.1.Journal of clinical medicine · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
While the number of detected Monkeypox infections are widely available, an understanding of the extent of undetected cases is urgently needed for an effective tackling of its spread. The aim of this study is to estimate the true number of Monkeypox (detected and undetected) infections in most affected countries. The question being asked is: How many cases have actually occurred? We propose a lower bound estimator for the true number of Monkeypox cases. The estimator is data-driven and can be easily computed from the cumulative distributions of weekly cases. We focused on the ratio of the total estimated cases to the observed cases on July 31, 2022: The proportion of undetected cases was relevant in all countries, with countries whose estimated true number of infections could be more than three times the observed one. We provided a practical contribution to the understanding of the current Monkeypox wave and reliable estimates on how many undetected cases are going around in several countries, where the epidemic spreads differently.
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