ArticlePLoS computational biology2022
Seasonal variation in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in temperate climates: A Bayesian modelling study in 143 European regions.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 36 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
36 citing papers in PubMed, 58 citations in OpenAlex.
- Clinical effectiveness, safety, and viral mutagenicity of oral favipiravir for COVID-19: results from a community-based, open-label, randomized Phase III trial.Antimicrobial agents and chemotherapy · 2025Trial
- Rethinking COVID-19 seasonality: A summer respiratory virus in the tropics, contrast to influenza.World journal of virology · 2026Review
- Semiannual seasonality of COVID-19 with alternating peaks in winter and summer.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Optimal pandemic control strategies and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions in the United States.BMC global and public health · 2025Article
- Estimating the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 transmission in the Netherlands.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Implications of spatial and seasonal air pollution patterns, socioeconomic disparities, and 15-minute communities for achieving WHO air quality guidelines.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Analysis of Pathogens in Respiratory Tract Infections and Their Effect on Disease Severity: Retrospective Data from a Tertiary Care German Children's Hospital.Children (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Seasonal and periodic patterns in US COVID-19 mortality using the Variable Bandpass Periodic Block Bootstrap.PloS one · 2025Article
- Evaluation of Strategies for Transitioning to Annual SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Campaigns in the United States.Annals of internal medicine · 2024Article
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- Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub.PLoS medicine · 2024Article
- On the SARS-CoV-2 Variants.Infectious disease reports · 2024Article
- SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: A Comparison Between the Epidemiological Situation in Greece and Romania.Cureus · 2024Article
- Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: lessons from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Key Considerations during the Transition from the Acute Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Narrative Review.Vaccines · 2023Review
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- Macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.Economic modelling · 2023Article
- Seasonal variation in the transmission rate of covid-19 in a temperate climate can be implemented in epidemic population models by using daily average temperature as a proxy for seasonal changes in transmission rate.Microbial risk analysis · 2022Article
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Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Although seasonal variation has a known influence on the transmission of several respiratory viral infections, its role in SARS-CoV-2 transmission remains unclear. While there is a sizable and growing literature on environmental drivers of COVID-19 transmission, recent reviews have highlighted conflicting and inconclusive findings. This indeterminacy partly owes to the fact that seasonal variation relates to viral transmission by a complicated web of causal pathways, including many interacting biological and behavioural factors. Since analyses of specific factors cannot determine the aggregate strength of seasonal forcing, we sidestep the challenge of disentangling various possible causal paths in favor of a holistic approach. We model seasonality as a sinusoidal variation in transmission and infer a single Bayesian estimate of the overall seasonal effect. By extending two state-of-the-art models of non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) effects and their datasets covering 143 regions in temperate Europe, we are able to adjust our estimates for the role of both NPIs and mobility patterns in reducing transmission. We find strong seasonal patterns, consistent with a reduction in the time-varying reproduction number R(t) (the expected number of new infections generated by an infectious individual at time t) of 42.1% (95% CI: 24.7%-53.4%) from the peak of winter to the peak of summer. These results imply that the seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is comparable in magnitude to the most effective individual NPIs but less than the combined effect of multiple interventions.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.