Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36017878›Full record

ArticleGigaScience2022

Statistical quantification of confounding bias in machine learning models.

Tamas Spisak

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in GigaScience, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  12. Temporal autocorrelation is predictive of age-An extensive MEG time-series analysis.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
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  15. Distinguishing deception from its confounds by improving the validity of fMRI-based neural prediction.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
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  18. The effects of data leakage on connectome-based machine learning models.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

1 author.

Tamas SpisakCenter for Translational Neuro- and Behavioral Sciences, Institute for Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology and Neuroradiology, Center University Hospital Essen, Essen, D-45147, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-2942-0821

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe lack of nonparametric statistical tests for confounding bias significantly hampers the development of robust, valid, and generalizable predictive models in many fields of research. Here I propose the partial confounder test, which, for a given confounder variable, probes the null hypotheses of the model being unconfounded.

resultsThe test provides a strict control for type I errors and high statistical power, even for nonnormally and nonlinearly dependent predictions, often seen in machine learning. Applying the proposed test on models trained on large-scale functional brain connectivity data (N= 1,865) (i) reveals previously unreported confounders and (ii) shows that state-of-the-art confound mitigation approaches may fail preventing confounder bias in several cases.

conclusionsThe proposed test (implemented in the package mlconfound; https://mlconfound.readthedocs.io) can aid the assessment and improvement of the generalizability and validity of predictive models and, thereby, fosters the development of clinically useful machine learning biomarkers.

Indexed as

BrainModels, StatisticalBiasMachine Learningconditional independenceconditional permutationconfounder testconfounding biasmachine learningpredictive modeling

Identifiers

PMID36017878
PMCPMC9412867

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.