Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36008418›Full record

ArticleNature communications2022

Destabilisation of the Subpolar North Atlantic prior to the Little Ice Age.

Beatriz Arellano-Nava, Paul R Halloran, Chris A Boulton, James Scourse, Paul G Butler, David J Reynolds, Timothy M Lenton

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
1.2field-weighted citation impact, top 22% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed, 12 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Beatriz Arellano-NavaGlobal Systems Institute and Geography Department, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-0758-3555
Paul R HalloranGlobal Systems Institute and Geography Department, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK. P.Halloran@exeter.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0002-9227-0678
Chris A BoultonGlobal Systems Institute and Geography Department, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-7836-9391
James ScourseCollege of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, UK.
Paul G ButlerCollege of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-9924-0316
David J ReynoldsCollege of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-8645-7196
Timothy M LentonGlobal Systems Institute and Geography Department, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-6725-7498
University of Exeter · GB

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The cooling transition into the Little Ice Age was the last notable shift in the climate system prior to anthropogenic global warming. It is hypothesised that sea-ice to ocean feedbacks sustained an initial cooling into the Little Ice Age by weakening the subpolar gyre circulation; a system that has been proposed to exhibit bistability. Empirical evidence for bistability within this transition has however been lacking. Using statistical indicators of resilience in three annually-resolved bivalve proxy records from the North Icelandic shelf, we show that the subpolar North Atlantic climate system destabilised during two episodes prior to the Little Ice Age. This loss of resilience indicates reduced attraction to one stable state, and a system vulnerable to an abrupt transition. The two episodes preceded wider subpolar North Atlantic change, consistent with subpolar gyre destabilisation and the approach of a tipping point, potentially heralding the transition to Little Ice Age conditions.

Indexed as

ClimateIce CoverAtlantic OceanClimate ChangeGlobal WarmingIceland

Identifiers

PMID36008418
PMCPMC9411610
OpenAlexW4293242841

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.