ArticleBipolar disorders2022
A risk calculator to predict suicide attempts among individuals with early-onset bipolar disorder.
Article in Bipolar disorders, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 17 citations in OpenAlex.
- Interventions for suicidal and self-injurious related behaviors in adolescents with psychiatric disorders: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Translational psychiatry · 2025Pooled it
- Brainwide Structural Markers of Familial and Clinical Risk for Bipolar Disorder in Youth.Biological psychiatry. Cognitive neuroscience and neuroimaging · 2026Article
- Validation and Extension of a Risk Calculator to Predict Mood Recurrence in Young People with Bipolar Disorder.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Suicide Deaths in People With Bipolar Disorder: Characteristics and Treatments at Time of Death.Bipolar disorders · 2025Article
- Longitudinal stability of mood-related resting-state networks in youth with symptomatic bipolar-I/II disorder.Translational psychiatry · 2025Article
- Validation of a youth suicide risk calculator in an adult sample with bipolar disorder.Journal of affective disorders · 2024Article
- Molecular Changes Associated with Suicide.International journal of molecular sciences · 2023Review
- Suicide Assessment and Prevention in Bipolar Disorder: How Current Evidence Can Inform Clinical Practice.Focus (American Psychiatric Publishing) · 2023Article
- Assessment and Management of Bipolar Disorder.Focus (American Psychiatric Publishing) · 2023Article
- Conceptualizing eating disorder recovery research: Current perspectives and future research directions.Journal of eating disorders · 2022Review
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Authors and funding
14 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesTo build a one-year risk calculator (RC) to predict individualized risk for suicide attempt in early-onset bipolar disorder.
methodsYouth numbering 394 with bipolar disorder who completed ≥2 follow-up assessments (median follow-up length = 13.1 years) in the longitudinal Course and Outcome of Bipolar Youth (COBY) study were included. Suicide attempt over follow-up was assessed via the A-LIFE Self-Injurious/Suicidal Behavior scale. Predictors from the literature on suicidal behavior in bipolar disorder that are readily assessed in clinical practice were selected and trichotomized as appropriate (presence past 6 months/lifetime history only/no lifetime history). The RC was trained via boosted multinomial classification trees; predictions were calibrated via Platt scaling. Half of the sample was used to train, and the other half to independently test the RC.
resultsThere were 249 suicide attempts among 106 individuals. Ten predictors accounted for >90% of the cross-validated relative influence in the model (AUC = 0.82; in order of relative influence): (1) age of mood disorder onset; (2) non-suicidal self-injurious behavior (trichotomized); (3) current age; (4) psychosis (trichotomized); (5) socioeconomic status; (6) most severe depressive symptoms in past 6 months (trichotomized none/subthreshold/threshold); (7) history of suicide attempt (trichotomized); (8) family history of suicidal behavior; (9) substance use disorder (trichotomized); (10) lifetime history of physical/sexual abuse. For all trichotomized variables, presence in the past 6 months reliably predicted higher risk than lifetime history.
conclusionsThis RC holds promise as a clinical and research tool for prospective identification of individualized high-risk periods for suicide attempt in early-onset bipolar disorder.
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