ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2022
Regime shifts, trends, and variability of lake productivity at a global scale.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Global lake tipping vulnerability under sustained agricultural exposure.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Regime shifts and climate responses of alpine grasslands in Gannan Prefecture, China.Frontiers in plant science · 2026Article
- Combined Effects of Flood Disturbances and Nutrient Enrichment Prompt Aquatic Vegetation Expansion: Sediment Evidence from a Floodplain Lake.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Warming increases richness and shapes assemblages of eukaryotic parasitic plankton.Environmental microbiome · 2025Article
- Revealing unseen dynamical regimes of ecosystems from population time-series data.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Abrupt changes in algal biomass of thousands of US lakes are related to climate and are more likely in low-disturbance watersheds.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Physically stable yet biologically sensitive: multiyear ecological dynamics of anoxygenic phototrophs in stably redox-stratified Lake Cadagno.Aquatic sciences · 2025Article
- Reduced precipitation can induce ecosystem regime shifts in lakes by increasing internal nutrient recycling.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Using Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning To Assess Patterns of Areal Change in Waterbodies across the Contiguous United States.Environmental science & technology · 2024Article
- Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales.Nature communications · 2024Review
- Anthropogenic Eutrophication Drives Major Food Web Changes in Mwanza Gulf, Lake Victoria.Ecosystems (New York, N.Y.) · 2024Article
- A Critical Gap in Seagrass Protection: Impact of Anthropogenic Off-Shore Nutrient Discharges on DeepPlants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
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5 authors.
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Abstract
Lakes are often described as sentinels of global change. Phenomena like lake eutrophication, algal blooms, or reorganization in community composition belong to the most studied ecosystem regime shifts. However, although regime shifts have been well documented in several lakes, a global assessment of the prevalence of regime shifts is still missing, and, more in general, of the factors altering stability in lake status, is missing. Here, we provide a first global assessment of regime shifts and stability in the productivity of 1,015 lakes worldwide using trophic state index (TSI) time series derived from satellite imagery. We find that 12.8% of the lakes studied show regime shifts whose signatures are compatible with tipping points, while the number of detected regime shifts from low to high TSI has increased over time. Although our results suggest an overall stable picture for global lake dynamics, the limited instability signatures do not mean that lakes are insensitive to global change. Modeling the interaction between lake climatic, geophysical, and socioeconomic features and their stability properties, we find that the probability of a lake experiencing a tipping point increases with human population density in its catchment, while it decreases as the gross domestic product of that population increases. Our results show how quantifying lake productivity dynamics at a global scale highlights socioeconomic inequalities in conserving natural environments.
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