ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2022
Probabilistic forecasts of international bilateral migration flows.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Including the gender dimension of migration is essential to avoid systematic bias in migration predictions.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Stochastic evolution model for international migration.PloS one · 2025Article
- Probabilistic forecasts of international bilateral migration flows.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
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Abstract
We propose a method for forecasting global human migration flows. A Bayesian hierarchical model is used to make probabilistic projections of the 39,800 bilateral migration flows among the 200 most populous countries. We generate out-of-sample forecasts for all bilateral flows for the 2015 to 2020 period, using models fitted to bilateral migration flows for five 5-y periods from 1990 to 1995 through 2010 to 2015. We find that the model produces well-calibrated out-of-sample forecasts of bilateral flows, as well as total country-level inflows, outflows, and net flows. The mean absolute error decreased by 61% using our method, compared to a leading model of international migration. Out-of-sample analysis indicated that simple methods for forecasting migration flows offered accurate projections of bilateral migration flows in the near term. Our method matched or improved on the out-of-sample performance using these simple deterministic alternatives, while also accurately assessing uncertainty. We integrate the migration flow forecasting model into a fully probabilistic population projection model to generate bilateral migration flow forecasts by age and sex for all flows from 2020 to 2025 through 2040 to 2045.
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