The euro area's pandemic recession: A DSGE-based interpretation.

Roberta Cardani, Olga Croitorov, Massimo Giovannini, Philipp Pfeiffer, Marco Ratto, Lukas Vogel

Open access · hybridAbstract read

In one paragraph

Article in Journal of economic dynamics & control, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it

0cells of the map it votes in

0citing papers in PubMed

17.5field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field

1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed, 47 citations in OpenAlex.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors at 3 institutions in 3 countries.

Roberta CardaniJoint Research Centre, European Commission, TP581, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy.

Olga CroitorovDirectorate-General Economic and Financial Affairs, European Commission, Rue de la Loi 170, 1049 Brussels, Belgium.

Massimo GiovanniniJoint Research Centre, European Commission, TP581, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy.

Philipp PfeifferDirectorate-General Economic and Financial Affairs, European Commission, Rue de la Loi 170, 1049 Brussels, Belgium.

Marco RattoJoint Research Centre, European Commission, TP581, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy.

Lukas VogelDirectorate-General Economic and Financial Affairs, European Commission, Rue de la Loi 170, 1049 Brussels, Belgium.

European Commission · BEJoint Research Centre · ITCentral Bank of Malta · MT

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

This paper augments the European Commission's open-economy DSGE model (GM) with COVID-specific shocks ('forced savings', labour hoarding) and financially-constrained investors to account for the extreme volatility of private domestic demand and hours worked during COVID-19, and it estimates the model on euro area data for the period 1998q4-2021q4. It takes a pragmatic approach of adapting the workhorse model of a policy institution to COVID-19 data. 'Forced savings' are central to explain quarterly real GDP growth during the pandemic, complemented by contributions from foreign demand and trade, and the negative impact of persistently higher savings after the first wave. We provide extensive model validation, including a comparison to off-model evidence for COVID-related restrictions, and a comparison of different model specifications.

Indexed as

COVID-19Estimated DSGE modelEuro areaForced savingsRecession

Identifiers

PMID35991509

DOI10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104512

PMCPMC9381995

OpenAlexW4292263593

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.