Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35987665›Full record

ArticleMalaria journal2022

Spatial analysis to evaluate risk of malaria in Northern Sumatera, Indonesia.

Fahmi Fahmi, Ayodhia Pitaloka Pasaribu, Minerva Theodora, Kinley Wangdi

Erratum issuedAbstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in Malaria journal, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 4 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Fahmi FahmiDepartment of Electrical Engineering, Universitas Sumatera Utara, Medan, 20155, Indonesia.
Ayodhia Pitaloka PasaribuDepartment of Child Health, Medical Faculty, Universitas Sumatera Utara, Medan, 20155, Indonesia. ayodhiapp@usu.ac.id.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3830-8073
Minerva TheodoraDirectorate of Vector Borne and Zoonotic Disease Control, Ministry of Health of Indonesia, South Jakarta, 12950, Indonesia.
Kinley WangdiDepartment of Global Health, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, College of Health and Medicine, Australian National University, Acton, ACT, 2601, Australia.

Funding

Kementerian Riset, Teknologi dan Pendidikan Tinggi World Class Research Programme 2021
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAs Indonesia aims for malaria elimination by 2030, provisional malaria epidemiology and risk factors evaluation are important in pursue of this national goal. Therefore, this study aimed to understand the risk factor of malaria in Northern Sumatera.

methodsMalaria cases from 2019 to 2020 were obtained from the Indonesian Ministry of Health Electronic Database. Climatic variables were provided by the Center for Meteorology and Geophysics Medan branch office. Multivariable logistic regression was undertaken to understand the risk factors of imported malaria. A zero-inflated Poisson multivariable regression model was used to study the climatic drivers of indigenous malaria.

resultsA total of 2208 (indigenous: 76.0% [1679] and imported: 17.8% [392]) were reported during the study period. Risk factors of imported malaria were: ages 19-30 (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 3.31; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.67, 2.56), 31-45 (AOR = 5.69; 95% CI 2.65, 12.20), and > 45 years (AOR = 5.11; 95% CI 2.41, 10.84). Military personnel and forest workers and miners were 1,154 times (AOR = 197.03; 95% CI 145.93, 9,131.56) and 44 times (AOR = 44.16; 95% CI 4.08, 477,93) more likely to be imported cases as compared to those working as employees and traders. Indigenous Plasmodium falciparum increased by 12.1% (95% CrI 5.1%, 20.1%) for 1% increase in relative humidity and by 21.0% (95% CrI 9.0%, 36.2%) for 1 °C increase in maximum temperature. Plasmodium vivax decreased by 0.8% (95% CrI 0.2%, 1.3%) and 16.7% (95% CrI 13.7%, 19.9%) for one meter and 1 °C increase of altitude and minimum temperature. Indigenous hotspot was reported by Kota Tanjung Balai city and Asahan regency, respectively. Imported malaria hotspots were reported in Batu Bara, Kota Tebing Tinggi, Serdang Bedagai and Simalungun.

conclusionBoth indigenous and imported malaria is limited to a few regencies and cities in Northern Sumatera. The control measures should focus on these risk factors to achieve elimination in Indonesia.

Indexed as

MalariaMalaria, FalciparumMalaria, VivaxAdultHumansIndonesiaPlasmodium falciparumPlasmodium vivaxSpatial AnalysisYoung AdultBayesian analysisEliminationImportedIndigenousIndonesiaMalariaNorthern SumateraSpatial analysis

Identifiers

PMID35987665
PMCPMC9392258

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.