ArticleNature communications2022
Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era.
Article in Nature communications, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Agreement between seroprevalence- and model-based estimates of COVID-19 burden.Global health action · 2026Article
- The role of receptor binding and immunity in SARS-CoV-2 fitness landscape: A modeling study.iScience · 2026Article
- Reconstructing the incidence rate and immune fraction of the population via a single snapshot survey: A case study of COVID-19 in Japan.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Mobility-driven synthetic contact matrices as a scalable solution for real-time pandemic response modeling.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Leaky or polarised immunity: Non-Markovian modelling highlights the impact of immune memory assumptions.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Comparative evaluation of behavioral epidemic models using COVID-19 data.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Planning and adjusting the COVID-19 booster vaccination campaign to reduce disease burden.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- The Impact of Public Health and Social Measures (PHSMs) on SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in the WHO European Region (2020-2022).Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2024Article
- Effects of mobility, immunity and vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the Dominican Republic: a modelling study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2024Article
- Recent approaches in computational modelling for controlling pathogen threats.Life science alliance · 2024Review
- Evaluation of Strategies for Transitioning to Annual SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Campaigns in the United States.Annals of internal medicine · 2024Article
- Modelling COVID-19 Vaccination in the UK: Impact of the Autumn 2022 and Spring 2023 Booster Campaigns.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2024Article
- Impacts of Vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Variants Alpha and Delta on Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission Dynamics in Four Metropolitan Areas of the United States.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2024Article
- Article
- Impact of vaccinations, boosters and lockdowns on COVID-19 waves in French Polynesia.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Long-term vaccination strategies to mitigate the impact of SARS-CoV-2 transmission: A modelling study.PLoS medicine · 2023Article
- Analysis of the risk and pre-emptive control of viral outbreaks accounting for within-host dynamics: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Real-time surveillance of international SARS-CoV-2 prevalence using systematic traveller arrival screening: An observational study.PLoS medicine · 2023Observational
- Modelling the reopen strategy from dynamic zero-COVID in China considering the sequela and reinfection.Scientific reports · 2023Article
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5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
England has experienced a heavy burden of COVID-19, with multiple waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission since early 2020 and high infection levels following the emergence and spread of Omicron variants since late 2021. In response to rising Omicron cases, booster vaccinations were accelerated and offered to all adults in England. Using a model fitted to more than 2 years of epidemiological data, we project potential dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospital admissions and deaths in England to December 2022. We consider key uncertainties including future behavioural change and waning immunity and assess the effectiveness of booster vaccinations in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 disease burden between October 2021 and December 2022. If no new variants emerge, SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to decline, with low levels remaining in the coming months. The extent to which projected SARS-CoV-2 transmission resurges later in 2022 depends largely on assumptions around waning immunity and to some extent, behaviour, and seasonality.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.