Trial reportFrontiers in cellular and infection microbiology2022
A nomogram for clinical estimation of acute biliary pancreatitis risk among patients with symptomatic gallstones: A retrospective case-control study.
Trial report in Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 13 citations in OpenAlex.
- Diagnostic levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), epinephrine (EP), cortisol (COR), and norepinephrine (NE) in patients undergoing laparoscopic surgery for gallstones receiving anti-inflammatory therapy.Journal of medical biochemistry · 2025Article
- Article
- Association between neutrophil to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio and disease severity in patients with acute biliary pancreatitis.Annals of medicine · 2024Article
- Establishment and Validation of an Early Predictive Model for Severe Acute Pancreatitis.Journal of inflammation research · 2024Article
- Nomogram and Web Calculator Based on Lasso-Logistic Regression for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis Patients.Journal of inflammation research · 2024Article
- Risk Factors and Prediction of 28-Day-All Cause Mortality Among Critically Ill Patients with Acute Pancreatitis Using Machine Learning Techniques: A Retrospective Analysis of Multi-Institutions.Journal of inflammation research · 2024Article
- Effect of early antibiotic treatment strategy on prognosis of acute pancreatitis.BMC gastroenterology · 2023Article
- A novel prognostic model for predicting the risk of first variceal hemorrhage in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background/Purpose: Currently, there are no effective tools to accurately assess acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP) risk in patients with gallstones. This study aimed to develop an ABP risk nomogram in patients with symptomatic gallstones. Methods: We conducted a retrospective nested case-control study and data on 816 conservatively treated patients with symptomatic gallstones admitted to The First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University between January 6, 2007 and January 22, 2016 were retrospectively collected. We conducted a propensity-score matched (PSM) analysis based on follow-up time in a ratio of 1:4 between ABP group (n=65) and non-ABP group (n=260). These matched patients were randomly divided into study cohort (n=229) and validation cohort (n=96) according to a ratio of 7:3. In the study cohort, independent risk factors for ABP occurrence identified using Cox regression were included in nomogram. Nomogram performance and discrimination were assessed using the concordance index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC). The model was also validated in the validation cohort. Results: Nomogram was based on 7 independent risk factors: age, diabetes history, gallbladder wall thickness, gallstone diameter, coexisting common bile duct (CBD) stones, direct bilirubin (DBIL), and white blood cell count (WBC). The C-index of nomogram was 0.888, and the 10-year AUCs of nomogram was 0.955. In the validation cohort, nomogram still had good discrimination (C-index, 0.857; 10-year AUC, 0.814). The calibration curve showed good homogeneity between the prediction by nomogram and the actual observation. DCA and CIC demonstrated that nomogram was clinically useful. Conclusions: The ABP risk nomogram incorporating 7 features is useful to predict ABP risk in symptomatic gallstone patients.
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