Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35982088›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2022

Spatiotemporal mapping of malaria incidence in Sudan using routine surveillance data.

Ahmed Elagali, Ayman Ahmed, Nada Makki, Hassan Ismail, Mark Ajak, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Daniel J Weiss, Abdalla Ahmed Mohammed, Mustafa Abubakr, Ewan Cameron and 2 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed
7.6field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed, 41 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
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  6. Sudan's complex genetic admixture history drives adaptation to malaria in Sudanese Copts.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
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  13. Emergence ofNew microbes and new infections · 2025
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  19. The firstClinical case reports · 2023
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.

Ahmed ElagaliTelethon Kids Institute, Perth, WA, Australia. ahmedagali70@gmail.com.
Ayman AhmedInstitute of Endemic Diseases, University of Khartoum, Khartoum, 11111, Sudan.
Nada MakkiHealth Information Management and Statistics, Federal Ministry of Health, Khartoum, Sudan.
Hassan IsmailNeglected Tropical Diseases Control Division, Federal Ministry of Health, Khartoum, Sudan.
Mark AjakPreventive Health Services, National Ministry of Health, Juba, South Sudan.
Kefyalew Addis AleneTelethon Kids Institute, Perth, WA, Australia.
Daniel J WeissTelethon Kids Institute, Perth, WA, Australia.
Abdalla Ahmed MohammedDiseases Control Directorate, Federal Ministry of Health, Khartoum, Sudan.
Mustafa AbubakrDepartment of the Integrated Vector Management (IVM), Federal Ministry of Health, Khartoum, Sudan.
Ewan CameronTelethon Kids Institute, Perth, WA, Australia.
Peter GethingTelethon Kids Institute, Perth, WA, Australia.
Asmaa ElagaliDepartment of Zoology, Omdurman Islamic University, Khartoum, Sudan.
Federal Ministry of Health · SDThe Kids Research Institute Australia · AUOmdurman Islamic University · SDSwiss Tropical and Public Health Institute · CH

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1152978
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Malaria is a serious threat to global health, with over [Formula: see text] of the cases reported in 2020 by the World Health Organization in African countries, including Sudan. Sudan is a low-income country with a limited healthcare system and a substantial burden of malaria. The epidemiology of malaria in Sudan is rapidly changing due to factors including the rapidly developing resistance to drugs and insecticides among the parasites and vectors, respectively; the growing population living in humanitarian settings due to political instability; and the recent emergence of Anopheles stephensi in the country. These factors contribute to changes in the distribution of the parasites species as well as malaria vectors in Sudan, and the shifting patterns of malaria epidemiology underscore the need for investment in improved situational awareness, early preparedness, and a national prevention and control strategy that is updated, evidence based, and proactive. A key component of this strategy is accurate, high-resolution endemicity maps of species-specific malaria. Here, we present a spatiotemporal Bayesian model, developed in collaboration with the Sudanese Ministry of Health, that predicts a fine-scale (1 km [Formula: see text] 1 km) clinical incidence and seasonality profiles for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax across the country. We use monthly malaria case counts for both species collected via routine surveillance between January 2017 and December 2019, as well as a suite of high-resolution environmental covariates to inform our predictions. These epidemiological maps provide a useful resource for strategic planning and cost-effective implementation of malaria interventions, thus informing policymakers in Sudan to achieve success in malaria control and elimination.

Indexed as

MalariaMalaria, FalciparumMalaria, VivaxAnimalsBayes TheoremHumansIncidenceMosquito VectorsPlasmodium vivax

Identifiers

PMID35982088
PMCPMC9387890
OpenAlexW4292230104

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.