ArticlePain and therapy2022
Time Trends in the Incidence of Spinal Pain in China, 1990 to 2019 and Its Prediction to 2030: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.
Article in Pain and therapy, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers.
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Who cites it
35 citing papers in PubMed, 53 citations in OpenAlex.
- [Analysis of current status and trends of disease burden of neck pain in China from 1990 to 2023].Zhongguo xiu fu chong jian wai ke za zhi = Zhongguo xiufu chongjian waike zazhi = Chinese journal of reparative and reconstructive surgery · 2026Article
- Association between multifidus fatty infiltration and lumbar facet degeneration in unilateral disc herniation: a retrospective study.Journal of orthopaedic surgery and research · 2026Article
- Burden and trends of decubitus ulcers in East Asia, 1990-2021, with projections to 2031: a comprehensive analysis of the global burden of disease study.Journal of health, population, and nutrition · 2026Article
- Global burden of disease 2021: particulate matter pollution-attributable burden of upper respiratory infections, otitis media, and lower respiratory infections.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- The Burden, Risk Factor Analysis, and Prediction of Low Back Pain in China From 1990 to 2021.Pain research & management · 2026Article
- International trends and social disparities in pain of adults aged 50 years and older in 22 countries across Europe, Asia, and the Americas: a longitudinal population-based study.The lancet. Healthy longevity · 2026Article
- Global adolescent self-harm (10-19 years): 1990-2021 trends, health inequalities, frontier analysis, and 2035 projections using global burden of disease data.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Global burden of diseases attributable to childhood sexual abuse and bullying: findings from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2035.Social psychiatry and psychiatric epidemiology · 2026Article
- Global Burden of Colorectal Cancer in Adolescents and Young Adults From 1990 to 2021: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.Health science reports · 2025Article
- Burden of subarachnoid hemorrhage in Asia and ARIMA model prediction trends from 1990 to 2021.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Analysis and comparison of the burden of male breast cancer: differences between the global, China, India, and the United States.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Patients' knowledge, attitude, and practice toward degenerative lumbar spine disease: A cross-sectional study in Shanxi, China.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Temporal trends of low back pain burden and joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis in China from 1990 to 2021.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Mortality Projections, Regional Disparities in the Burden of Neonatal Disorders, and the Status of Achieving SDG Targets by 2030 in South Asia: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2025Article
- Disease burden of lung cancer attributable to metabolic and behavioral risks in China and globally from 1990 to 2021.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Analysis and comparison of the trends in burden of low back pain in China and worldwide from 1990 to 2021.Journal of health, population, and nutrition · 2025Article
- Comparative analysis of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder in China and worldwide based on the Global Burden of Disease study.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2025Article
- Analysis of the burden of intracerebral hemorrhage in the Asian population aged 45 and older and ARIMA model prediction trends: a systematic study based on the GBD 2021.Frontiers in neurology · 2025Article
- The rising burden of diabetes and state-wise variations in India: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2021 and projections to 2031.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2025Article
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7 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundWith increasing life expectancy in China, the associated burden of low back and neck pain (spinal pain) on the healthcare system increases, posing a substantial public health challenge. This study aimed to investigate trends in spinal pain incidence across China from 1990 to 2019 and to predict incidence trends between 2020 and 2030.
methodsData were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. The annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) between 1990 and 2019 were calculated using Joinpoint regression analysis. The effects of age, period, and cohort on spinal pain were estimated by an age-period-cohort model. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to forecast incidence trends from 2020 to 2030.
resultsFrom 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of low back pain (LBP) significantly decreased in both male and female subjects, while the ASIR of neck pain (NP) slightly increased regardless of sex. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the incidence rates of LBP decreased in all age groups, and incidence rates of NP increased after 45 years old among men and women. The age effects showed that the relative risks (RR) of LBP incidence increased with age, and the group aged 40-49 years had the highest RR for NP incidence, regardless of sex. Period effects showed that the risk of NP continuously increased with increasing time periods, but not in LBP. The cohort effect showed a continuously decreasing trend in later birth cohorts. The prediction results of the ARIMA model show that the ASIR of NP in both male and female subjects in China shows an increasing trend in the next 10 years, and the ASIR of LBP increased in male but decreased in female subjects.
conclusionSpinal pain has remained a major public health burden over the past 30 years in China and will likely increase further with population aging. Therefore, spinal pain should be a priority for future research on prevention and therapy, and is especially critical as the aging population increases in China.
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