ArticlePhilosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences2022
Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions.
Article in Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Quantifying the direct and indirect components of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness during the Delta variant era.Epidemiology and infection · 2025Article
- The SARS-CoV-2 test scale-up in the USA: an analysis of the number of tests produced and used over time and their modelled impact on the COVID-19 pandemic.The Lancet. Public health · 2025Article
- Differences in COVID-19 cyclicity and predictability among U.S. counties and states reflect the effectiveness of protective measures.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- The trade-off between COVID-19 and mental diseases burden during a lockdown: Mathematical modeling of control measures.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Trading-off privacy and utility: the Washington State experience assessing the performance of a public health digital exposure notification system for coronavirus disease 2019.Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA · 2022Article
- Modelling herd immunity requirements in Queensland: impact of vaccination effectiveness, hesitancy and variants of SARS-CoV-2.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
- Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
- The Royal Society RAMP modelling initiative.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
- Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
- Estimation of age-stratified contact rates during the COVID-19 pandemic using a novel inference algorithm.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
- Visualization for epidemiological modelling: challenges, solutions, reflections and recommendations.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
- Burden of SARS-CoV-2 infection in healthcare workers during second wave in England and impact of vaccines: prospective multicentre cohort study (SIREN) and mathematical model.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
17 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The English SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been affected by the emergence of new viral variants such as B.1.177, Alpha and Delta, and changing restrictions. We used statistical models and the agent-based model Covasim, in June 2021, to estimate B.1.177 to be 20% more transmissible than the wild type, Alpha to be 50-80% more transmissible than B.1.177 and Delta to be 65-90% more transmissible than Alpha. Using these estimates in Covasim (calibrated 1 September 2020 to 20 June 2021), in June 2021, we found that due to the high transmissibility of Delta, resurgence in infections driven by the Delta variant would not be prevented, but would be strongly reduced by delaying the relaxation of restrictions by one month and with continued vaccination. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.
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