ArticlePhilosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences2022
Estimation of local time-varying reproduction numbers in noisy surveillance data.
Article in Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Redefining and estimating the early-phase reproduction ratio for epidemic outbreaks in spatially structured populations.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Effective Reproduction Number of Smear-Positive Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Iran: A Registry-Based Study (2011-2021).Journal of research in health sciences · 2024Article
- Heterogeneity in the onwards transmission risk between local and imported cases affects practical estimates of the time-dependent reproduction number.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
- Modelling herd immunity requirements in Queensland: impact of vaccination effectiveness, hesitancy and variants of SARS-CoV-2.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
- Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
- Visualization for epidemiological modelling: challenges, solutions, reflections and recommendations.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
- Tracking the national and regional COVID-19 epidemic status in the UK using weighted principal component analysis.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
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5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
A valuable metric in understanding local infectious disease dynamics is the local time-varying reproduction number, i.e. the expected number of secondary local cases caused by each infected individual. Accurate estimation of this quantity requires distinguishing cases arising from local transmission from those imported from elsewhere. Realistically, we can expect identification of cases as local or imported to be imperfect. We study the propagation of such errors in estimation of the local time-varying reproduction number. In addition, we propose a Bayesian framework for estimation of the true local time-varying reproduction number when identification errors exist. And we illustrate the practical performance of our estimator through simulation studies and with outbreaks of COVID-19 in Hong Kong and Victoria, Australia. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.