ArticleActa parasitologica2022
Forecasting the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Malaria in the Lake Victoria Basin Using Regionalized Climate Projections.
Article in Acta parasitologica, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 19 citations in OpenAlex.
- The burden of malaria in East Africa: prevalence, risk factors, and control strategies.Malaria journal · 2025Pooled it
- Projected impact of climate change on human health in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.BMJ global health · 2024Pooled it
- Global trends in the burden of malaria: mapping the prevalence, incidence and mortality ofBMJ global health · 2026Article
- Influence of climate variability and seasonal trends on malaria incidence in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania using generalized additive models.Epidemiology and infection · 2026Article
- The "Agriculture and Diet: Value Added for Nutrition, Translation, and Adaptation in a Global Ecology" (ADVANTAGE) Project: An Overview of an Integrated Approach to Address a Complex Challenge.Advances in nutrition (Bethesda, Md.) · 2026Review
- Spatio-temporal modelling and prediction of malaria incidence in Mozambique using climatic indicators from 2001 to 2018.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Impact of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa: A scoping review of literature.Journal of public health in Africa · 2025Review
- Global warming may significantly increase childhood anemia burden in sub-Saharan Africa.One earth (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2023Article
- Exploring the intersection of climate/environmental change, food systems, nutrition, and health: global challenge, opportunity, or both?The American journal of clinical nutrition · 2023Article
- Geospatial techniques for monitoring and mitigating climate change and its effects on human health.International journal of health geographics · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 5 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundMalaria epidemics are increasing in East Africa since the 1980s, coincident with rising temperature and widening climate variability. A projected 1-3.5 °C rise in average global temperatures by 2100 could exacerbate the epidemics by modifying disease transmission thresholds. Future malaria scenarios for the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) are quantified for projected climate scenarios spanning 2006-2100.
methodsRegression relationships are established between historical (1995-2010) clinical malaria and anaemia cases and rainfall and temperature for four East African malaria hotspots. The vector autoregressive moving average processes model, VARMAX (p,q,s), is then used to forecast malaria and anaemia responses to rainfall and temperatures projected with an ensemble of eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) for climate change scenarios defined by three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5).
resultsMaximum temperatures in the long rainy (March-May) and dry (June-September) seasons will likely increase by over 2.0 °C by 2070, relative to 1971-2000, under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Minimum temperatures (June-September) will likely increase by over 1.5-3.0 °C under RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The short rains (OND) will likely increase more than the long rains (MAM) by the 2050s and 2070s under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Historical malaria cases are positively and linearly related to the 3-6-month running means of monthly rainfall and maximum temperature. Marked variation characterizes the patterns projected for each of the three scenarios across the eight General Circulation Models, reaffirming the importance of using an ensemble of models for projections.
conclusionsThe short rains (OND), wet season (MAM) temperatures and clinical malaria cases will likely increase in the Lake Victoria Basin. Climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, including malaria control interventions could reduce the projected epidemics and cases. Interventions should reduce emerging risks, human vulnerability and environmental suitability for malaria transmission.
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