SynthesisJournal of infection and chemotherapy : official journal of the Japan Society of Chemotherapy2022
Inferring the true number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Japan.
Synthesis in Journal of infection and chemotherapy : official journal of the Japan Society of Chemotherapy, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed, 5 citations in OpenAlex.
- Modeling the Impact of Ensitrelvir on SARS-CoV-2 Dynamics and Its Application for Assessment of Transmission Mitigation of Patients with COVID-19.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2024Article
- Participatory, Virologic, and Wastewater Surveillance Data to Assess Underestimation of COVID-19 Incidence, Germany, 2020-2024.Emerging infectious diseases · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionIn Japan, as of December 31, 2021, more than 1.73 million laboratory-confirmed cases have been reported. However, the actual number of infections is likely to be under-ascertained due to the epidemiological characteristics such as mild and subclinical infections and limited testing availability in the early days of the pandemic. In this study, we infer the true number of infections in Japan between January 16, 2020, and December 31, 2021, using a statistical modelling framework that combines data on reported cases and fatalities.
methodsWe used reported COVID-19 deaths and age-specific infection fatality ratios (IFR) to impute the true number of infections. Estimates of IFR were informed from published studies and were adjusted to reflect the effects of pharmaceutical interventions, mass vaccination, and evolving variants. To account for the uncertainty in IFR, we sampled values from relevant distributions.
resultsWe estimated that as of December 31, 2021, 3.07 million (CrI: 2.05-4.24 million) people had been infected in Japan, which is 1.77 times higher than the 1.73 million reported cases. Our meta-analysis confirmed that these findings were consistent with the intermittent seroprevalence studies conducted in Japan.
conclusionsWe have estimated that a substantial number of COVID-19 infections in Japan were unreported, particularly in adults. Our approach provides a more realistic assessment of the true underlying burden of COVID-19. The results of this study can be used as fundamental components to strengthen population health control and surveillance measures.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.