Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35960670›Full record

ArticlePrecision clinical medicine2020

An evaluation of mathematical models for the outbreak of COVID-19.

Ning Wang, Yuting Fu, Hu Zhang, Huipeng Shi

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Precision clinical medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
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  8. Underdetection in a stochastic SIR model for the analysis of the COVID-19 Italian epidemic.Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment : research journal · 2022
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  10. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Ning WangMathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK.
Yuting FuMathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK.
Hu ZhangDepartment of Gastroenterology & Center for Inflammatory Bowel Disease, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, China.ORCID 0000-0002-3281-4661
Huipeng ShiDepartment of Orthopaedics, Shanghai 6th People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 201306, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Mathematical modelling performs a vital part in estimating and controlling the recent outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this epidemic, most countries impose severe intervention measures to contain the spread of COVID-19. The policymakers are forced to make difficult decisions to leverage between health and economic development. How and when to make clinical and public health decisions in an epidemic situation is a challenging question. The most appropriate solution is based on scientific evidence, which is mainly dependent on data and models. So one of the most critical problems during this crisis is whether we can develop reliable epidemiological models to forecast the evolution of the virus and estimate the effectiveness of various intervention measures and their impacts on the economy. There are numerous types of mathematical model for epidemiological diseases. In this paper, we present some critical reviews on mathematical models for the outbreak of COVID-19. Some elementary models are presented as an initial formulation for an epidemic. We give some basic concepts, notations, and foundation for epidemiological modelling. More related works are also introduced and evaluated by considering epidemiological features such as disease tendency, latent effects, susceptibility, basic reproduction numbers, asymptomatic infections, herd immunity, and impact of the interventions.

Indexed as

2019-nCoVasymptomatic infectionsbasic reproduction numberscase fatality ratioCOVID-19epidemiological modellingherd immunityintervention measuresnovel coronavirusSARS-CoV-2SEIR modelSIR model

Identifiers

PMID35960670
PMCPMC7376265

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.