Risk factors for the progression from acute recurrent to chronic pancreatitis among children in China.

Background: Risk factors for progression from acute recurrent pancreatitis (ARP) to chronic pancreatitis (CP) in children are poorly understood. Aim: To summarize the clinical characteristics of children with ARP and CP, identify the risk factors of CP, and investigate the factors associated with rapid progression from initial onset of ARP to CP. Methods: The following variables were included in the risk factor analysis: sex, age at onset, family history, pancreas or biliary tract structural abnormalities, and genetic variations. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess the risk factors of CP. The Kaplan-Meier curves of the ARP progression to CP for various risk factor groupings were constructed and compared using the log-rank test. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was fitted to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of progression to CP for each risk variable. Results: In total, 276 children were studied, of whom 136 progressed to CP. Among them, 41 had pancreatic duct obstructive disease; 105 underwent genetic testing, of whom 68 were found to have genetic variations. Among the remaining 140 patients who did not progress to CP, 61 had biliary obstructions. Forty-three of these children underwent genetic testing, and 15 were found to have genetic variations. Risk factor analysis showed that children with gene mutations were at a higher risk of progressing to CP [odds ratio (OR) = 3.482; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.444-8.398; Conclusion: