Simulation of Land Use Pattern Based on Land Ecological Security: A Case Study of Guangzhou, China.

The process of rapid urbanization has intensified the conversion of different land use types, resulting in a substantial loss of ecological land and ecological security being threatened. In the context of China's vigorous advocacy of an ecological civilization, it is important to explore future land use patterns under ecological security constraints to promote sustainable development. The insufficient consideration of land ecological security in existing land use pattern simulation studies makes it difficult to effectively promote improvement in the ecological security level. Therefore, we developed a land use simulation framework that integrates land ecological security. Taking the sustainable development of land ecosystems as the core, the land ecological security index (LESI) and ecological zoning (EZ) were determined by the pressure-state-response (PSR) model and the catastrophe progression method (CPM). Natural development (ND) and ecological protection (EP) scenarios were then constructed taking the LESI and EZ into consideration. The CA-Markov model was used to simulate the land use pattern of Guangzhou for 2030 under the two scenarios. The results showed that (1) the study area was divided into four categories: ecological core zone, ecological buffer zone, ecological optimization zone, and urban development zone, with area shares of 37.53%, 31.14%, 16.96%, and 14.37%, respectively. (2) In both scenarios, the construction land around the towns showed outward expansion; compared with the ND scenario, the construction land in the EP scenario decreased by 369.10 km