ArticleBMC infectious diseases2022
Could widespread use of antiviral treatment curb the COVID-19 pandemic? A modeling study.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- A scoping review of COVID-19 modelling studies in Belgium 2020-2024: incorporation of behaviour and lessons learned.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2026Pooled it
- Comparing the Effectiveness and Safety of Remdesivir and Molnupiravir in COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Immunity, inflammation and disease · 2025Pooled it
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Effectiveness and Safety of Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir (Paxlovid) Versus Remdesivir in COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Retrospective Studies.Health science reports · 2026Review
- Selected Cannabinoids, Cannabimimetic Agents andPharmaceuticals (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Clinical trial simulation of antiviral drugs.Journal of virology · 2026Review
- Remdesivir Versus Sotrovimab in Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Health science reports · 2025Review
- Review
- The small molecule inhibitor of SARS-CoV-2 3CLpro EDP-235 prevents viral replication and transmission in vivo.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Covid19Vaxplorer: A free, online, user-friendly COVID-19 vaccine allocation comparison tool.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Estimating the potential impact and diagnostic requirements for SARS-CoV-2 test-and-treat programs.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Article
- Discovery of Nirmatrelvir Resistance Mutations in SARS-CoV-2 3CLpro: A Computational-Experimental Approach.Journal of chemical information and modeling · 2023Article
- Covid19Vaxplorer: a free, online, user-friendly COVID-19 Vaccine Allocation Comparison Tool.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Interferon β-1a ring prophylaxis to reduce household transmission of SARS-CoV-2: a cluster randomised clinical trial.EClinicalMedicine · 2023Article
- Treating SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infection by molnupiravir for pandemic mitigation and living with the virus: a mathematical modeling study.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Real-World Effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Booster in Hemodialysis Patients with COVID-19 Receiving Molnupiravir.Viruses · 2023Article
- Benefits of near-universal vaccination and treatment access to manage COVID-19 burden in the United States.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Unraveling the dynamics of the Omicron and Delta variants of the 2019 coronavirus in the presence of vaccination, mask usage, and antiviral treatment.Applied mathematical modelling · 2023Article
- Increasing reinfections and decreasing effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines urge the need for vaccine customization.Annals of medicine and surgery (2012) · 2022Article
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5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundDespite the development of safe and effective vaccines, effective treatments for COVID-19 disease are still urgently needed. Several antiviral drugs have shown to be effective in reducing progression of COVID-19 disease.
methodsIn the present work, we use an agent-based mathematical model to assess the potential population impact of the use of antiviral treatments in four countries with different demographic structure and current levels of vaccination coverage: Kenya, Mexico, United States (US) and Belgium. We analyzed antiviral effects on reducing hospitalization and death, and potential antiviral effects on reducing transmission. For each country, we varied daily treatment initiation rate (DTIR) and antiviral effect in reducing transmission (AVT).
resultsIrrespective of location and AVT, widespread antiviral treatment of symptomatic adult infections (20% DTIR) prevented the majority of COVID-19 deaths, and recruiting 6% of all adult symptomatic infections daily reduced mortality by over 20% in all countries. Furthermore, our model projected that targeting antiviral treatment to the oldest age group (65 years old and older, DTIR of 20%) can prevent over 30% of deaths. Our results suggest that early antiviral treatment (as soon as possible after inception of infection) is needed to mitigate transmission, preventing 50% more infections compared to late treatment (started 3 to 5 days after symptoms onset). Our results highlight the synergistic effect of vaccination and antiviral treatment: as the vaccination rate increases, antivirals have a larger relative impact on population transmission. Finally, our model projects that even in highly vaccinated populations, adding antiviral treatment can be extremely helpful to mitigate COVID-19 deaths.
conclusionsThese results suggest that antiviral treatments can become a strategic tool that, in combination with vaccination, can significantly reduce COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths and can help control SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.