ArticleJournal of applied econometrics (Chichester, England)
Matching theory and evidence on Covid-19 using a stochastic network SIR model.
Article in Journal of applied econometrics (Chichester, England). The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Interval type-2 Fuzzy control and stochastic modeling of COVID-19 spread based on vaccination and social distancing rates.Computer methods and programs in biomedicine · 2023Article
- COVID-19: Tail risk and predictive regressions.PloS one · 2022Article
- Economic impact of the most drastic lockdown during COVID-19 pandemic-The experience of Hubei, China.Journal of applied econometrics (Chichester, England)Article
- Matching theory and evidence on Covid-19 using a stochastic network SIR model.Journal of applied econometrics (Chichester, England)Article
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2 authors.
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Abstract
This paper develops an individual-based stochastic network SIR model for the empirical analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. It derives moment conditions for the number of infected and active cases for single as well as multigroup epidemic models. These moment conditions are used to investigate the identification and estimation of the transmission rates. The paper then proposes a method that jointly estimates the transmission rate and the magnitude of under-reporting of infected cases. Empirical evidence on six European countries matches the simulated outcomes once the under-reporting of infected cases is addressed. It is estimated that the number of actual cases could be between 4 to 10 times higher than the reported numbers in October 2020 and declined to 2 to 3 times in April 2021. The calibrated models are used in the counterfactual analyses of the impact of social distancing and vaccination on the epidemic evolution and the timing of early interventions in the United Kingdom and Germany.
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