ArticleJournal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics2022
Nowcasting COVID-19 deaths in England by age and region.
Article in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Joint Bayesian Nowcasting of Severe Acute Respiratory Illness and COVID-19 Positives in Brazil.Statistics in medicine · 2026Article
- Post-processing and weighted combination of infectious disease nowcasts.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Nowcasting reported covid-19 hospitalizations using de-identified, aggregated medical insurance claims data.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Nowcasting the 2022 mpox outbreak in England.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Collaborative nowcasting of COVID-19 hospitalization incidences in Germany.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Bayesian nowcasting with leading indicators applied to COVID-19 fatalities in Sweden.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Nowcasting COVID-19 deaths in England by age and region.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics · 2022Article
- Bayesian imputation of COVID-19 positive test counts for nowcasting under reporting lag.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics · 2022Article
- A nowcasting framework for correcting for reporting delays in malaria surveillance.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
- Risk of mortality in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern 202012/1: matched cohort study.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Understanding the trajectory of the daily number of COVID-19 deaths is essential to decisions on how to respond to the pandemic, but estimating this trajectory is complicated by the delay between deaths occurring and being reported. In England the delay is typically several days, but it can be weeks. This causes considerable uncertainty about how many deaths occurred in recent days. Here we estimate the deaths per day in five age strata within seven English regions, using a Bayesian model that accounts for reporting-day effects and longer-term changes in the delay distribution. We show how the model can be computationally efficiently fitted when the delay distribution is the same in multiple strata, for example, over a wide range of ages.
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Registered trials
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