Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35936653›Full record

ArticleJournal of public economic theory2022

Ambiguity in a pandemic recession, asset prices, and lockdown policy.

Keiichi Morimoto, Shiba Suzuki

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of public economic theory, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Keiichi MorimotoSchool of Political Science and Economics Meiji University Chiyoda-ku Tokyo Japan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3938-5468
Shiba SuzukiFaculty of Economics Seikei University Musashino-shi Tokyo Japan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4075-6916

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Using an asset pricing model of a multisector production economy including pandemic disaster, we explain the average stock price boom and significant cross-sectional variation of stock returns in the United States and Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic recession. We find that two features of the pandemic, namely ambiguity and sector-specific shocks, are critical determinants of the unusual asset price dynamics observed. Extending the model, we analyze the welfare effects of lockdown policy during pandemics for heterogeneous households. We theoretically show that enforcing a lockdown improves the welfare of asset holders and households working in sectors with positive sector-specific shocks. Consequently, a Pareto-optimal lockdown policy controls for the tightness of lockdown to maximize the welfare of households working in sectors with negative sector-specific shocks.

Identifiers

PMID35936653
PMCPMC9347425

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.