ArticleThe Lancet. Planetary health2022
Mapping local variation in household overcrowding across Africa from 2000 to 2018: a modelling study.
Article in The Lancet. Planetary health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 18 citations in OpenAlex.
- Identifying populations with high prevalence of non-malarial febrile illnesses across different demographic groups in Malawi.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Validation of a mobile application for prehospital transport time data collection in Kigali, Rwanda.BMC global and public health · 2026Article
- Geospatial patterns and socio-environmental factors of household overcrowding in Ethiopia: Evidence from 2019 Ethiopian demographic and health survey data.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Serological evidence of concurrent Lassa virus and SARS-CoV-2 exposure in Ghana- a cross-sectional study.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Household crowding and mortality before and during the COVID-19 pandemic among adults: Findings from longitudinal population surveillance data in rural and peri-urban settings in Limpopo, South Africa.Population health metrics · 2025Article
- Subnational variations in the quality of household survey data in sub-Saharan Africa.Nature communications · 2025Article
- The epidemiology and impact of persistentEClinicalMedicine · 2024Article
- Mapping TB incidence across districts in Uganda to inform health program activities.IJTLD open · 2024Article
- Spatial variation in housing construction material in low- and middle-income countries: A Bayesian spatial prediction model of a key infectious diseases risk factor and social determinant of health.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Article
- Assessing the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on maternal healthcare usage: evidence from routine health data in Kenya and Ethiopia.BMJ public health · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
10 authors at 4 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundHousehold overcrowding is a serious public health threat associated with high morbidity and mortality. Rapid population growth and urbanisation contribute to overcrowding and poor sanitation in low-income and middle- income countries, and are risk factors for the spread of infectious diseases, including COVID-19, and antimicrobial resistance. Many countries do not have adequate surveillance capacity to monitor household overcrowding. Geostatistical models are therefore useful tools for estimating household overcrowding. In this study, we aimed to estimate household overcrowding in Africa between 2000 and 2018 by combining available household survey data, population censuses, and other country-specific household surveys within a geostatistical framework.
methodsWe used data from household surveys and population censuses to generate a Bayesian geostatistical model of household overcrowding in Africa for the 19-year period between 2000 and 2018. Additional sociodemographic and health-related covariates informed the model, which covered 54 African countries.
findingsWe analysed 287 surveys and population censuses, covering 78 695 991 households. Spatial and temporal variability arose in household overcrowding estimates over time. In 2018, the highest overcrowding estimates were observed in the Horn of Africa region (median proportion 62% [IQR 57-63]); the lowest regional median proportion was estimated for the north of Africa region (16% [14-19]). Overall, 474·4 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 250·1 million-740·7 million) people were estimated to be living in overcrowded conditions in Africa in 2018, a 62·7% increase from the estimated 291·5 million (180·8 million-417·3 million) people who lived in overcrowded conditions in the year 2000. 48·5% (229·9 million) of people living in overcrowded conditions came from six African countries (Nigeria, Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, Uganda, and Kenya), with a combined population of 538·3 million people.
interpretationThis study incorporated survey and population censuses data and used geostatistical modelling to estimate continent-wide overcrowding over a 19-year period. Our analysis identified countries and areas with high numbers of people living in overcrowded conditions, thereby providing a benchmark for policy planning and the implementation of interventions such as in infectious disease control.
fundingUK Department of Health and Social Care, Wellcome Trust, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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