Dynamic models of obstructive sleep apnea provide robust prediction of respiratory event timing and a statistical framework for phenotype exploration.

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), in which breathing is reduced or ceased during sleep, affects at least 10% of the population and is associated with numerous comorbidities. Current clinical diagnostic approaches characterize severity and treatment eligibility using the average respiratory event rate over total sleep time (apnea-hypopnea index). This approach, however, does not characterize the time-varying and dynamic properties of respiratory events that can change as a function of body position, sleep stage, and previous respiratory event activity. Here, we develop a statistical model framework based on point process theory that characterizes the relative influences of all these factors on the moment-to-moment rate of event occurrence. Our results provide new insights into the temporal dynamics of respiratory events, suggesting that most adults have a characteristic event pattern that involves a period of normal breathing followed by a period of increased probability of respiratory event occurrence, while significant differences in event patterns are observed among gender, age, and race/ethnicity groups. Statistical goodness-of-fit analysis suggests consistent and substantial improvements in our ability to capture the timing of individual respiratory events using our modeling framework. Overall, we demonstrate a more statistically robust approach to characterizing sleep disordered breathing that can also serve as a basis for identifying future patient-specific respiratory phenotypes, providing an improved pathway towards developing individualized treatments.