Long-term spatiotemporal variation in density of a tropical folivore: responses to a complex disturbance regime.

The Anthropocene is a time of unprecedented and accelerating rates of environmental change that includes press (e.g., climate change) and pulse disturbances (e.g., cyclonic storms, land use change) that interact to affect spatiotemporal dynamics in the density, distribution, and biodiversity of organisms. We leverage three decades of spatially explicit data on the density of a tropical folivore (Lamponius portoricensis [Insecta, Phasmida]) in a hurricane-mediated ecosystem (montane rainforest of Puerto Rico), along with associated environmental attributes, to disentangle the effects of interacting disturbances at multiple spatial scales. Spatiotemporal variation in density at a small spatial scale is affected by disturbance-related characteristics (hurricane severity, time after most recent major hurricane, ambient temperature, and understory temperature), legacies of previous land use, and understory habitat structure. Nonetheless, only a small proportion of spatiotemporal variation in density was related to those characteristics. In contrast, the majority of interannual variation in mean density at a larger scale was related to disturbance characteristics and understory habitat structure. These factors combine to affect a weak and declining trend in the density of L. portoricensis over time. The low resistance of L. portoricensis to Hurricane Hugo, as compared to Hurricanes Georges and Maria, likely arose because a drought followed Hurricane Hugo. The disturbance regime of the region is predicted to include increases in ambient temperatures, frequency of high-intensity storms, and frequency of droughts. Such trends may combine to threaten the conservation status of L. portoricensis, and other species with which it shares similar life history characteristics.