ArticleParasites & vectors2022
Sub-national tailoring of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in Mali based on malaria surveillance and rainfall data.
Article in Parasites & vectors, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Extreme rainfall, flooding and malaria in the Sahara: outbreak analysis in Kidal, Mali 2024.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Managing insecticide resistance in malaria vectors in Africa: case studies from Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire and Tanzania.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Identifying malaria epidemic periods in Togo by health district and target group: a generalised additive model approach.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Impact of Control Interventions on Malaria Incidence in the General Population of Mali.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2025Article
- Subnational tailoring of malaria interventions for strategic planning and prioritization: Experience and perspectives of five malaria programs.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Impact of seasonal malaria chemoprevention timing on clinical malaria incidence dynamics in the Kedougou region, Senegal.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Geo-epidemiological risk stratification to select malaria interventions, case of Mali.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Seasonal malaria chemoprevention in Africa and China's upgraded role as a contributor: a scoping review.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2023Article
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16 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundIn malaria endemic countries, seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) interventions are performed during the high malaria transmission in accordance with epidemiological surveillance data. In this study we propose a predictive approach for tailoring the timing and number of cycles of SMC in all health districts of Mali based on sub-national epidemiological surveillance and rainfall data. Our primary objective was to select the best of two approaches for predicting the onset of the high transmission season at the operational scale. Our secondary objective was to evaluate the number of malaria cases, hospitalisations and deaths in children under 5 years of age that would be prevented annually and the additional cost that would be incurred using the best approach.
methodsFor each of the 75 health districts of Mali over the study period (2014-2019), we determined (1) the onset of the rainy season period based on weekly rainfall data; (ii) the onset and duration of the high transmission season using change point analysis of weekly incidence data; and (iii) the lag between the onset of the rainy season and the onset of the high transmission. Two approaches for predicting the onset of the high transmission season in 2019 were evaluated.
resultsIn the study period (2014-2019), the onset of the rainy season ranged from week (W) 17 (W17; April) to W34 (August). The onset of the high transmission season ranged from W25 (June) to W40 (September). The lag between these two events ranged from 5 to 12 weeks. The duration of the high transmission season ranged from 3 to 6 months. The best of the two approaches predicted the onset of the high transmission season in 2019 to be in June in two districts, in July in 46 districts, in August in 21 districts and in September in six districts. Using our proposed approach would prevent 43,819 cases, 1943 hospitalisations and 70 deaths in children under 5 years of age annually for a minimal additional cost. Our analysis shows that the number of cycles of SMC should be changed in 36 health districts.
conclusionAdapting the timing of SMC interventions using our proposed approach could improve the prevention of malaria cases and decrease hospitalisations and deaths. Future studies should be conducted to validate this approach.
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