ArticleScientific reports2022
EKF-SIRD model algorithm for predicting the coronavirus (COVID-19) spreading dynamics.
Article in Scientific reports, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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5 citing papers in PubMed.
- A filtering approach for statistical inference in a stochastic SIR model with an application to Covid-19 data.Biostatistics (Oxford, England) · 2025Article
- Poisson random measure noise-induced coherence in epidemiological priors informed deep neural networks to identify the intensity of virus dynamics.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Quantum-Like Approaches Unveil the Intrinsic Limits of Predictability in Compartmental Models.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Article
- Bayesian model selection for COVID-19 pandemic state estimation using extended Kalman filters: Case study for Saudi Arabia.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
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Abstract
In this paper, we study the Covid 19 disease profile in the Algerian territory since February 25, 2020 to February 13, 2021. The idea is to develop a decision support system allowing public health decision and policy-makers to have future statistics (the daily prediction of parameters) of the pandemic; and also encourage citizens for conducting health protocols. Many studies applied traditional epidemic models or machine learning models to forecast the evolution of coronavirus epidemic, but the use of such models alone to make the prediction will be less precise. For this purpose, we assume that the spread of the coronavirus is a moving target described by an epidemic model. On the basis of a SIRD model (Susceptible-Infection-Recovery- Death), we applied the EKF algorithm to predict daily all parameters. These predicted parameters will be much beneficial to hospital managers for updating the available means of hospitalization (beds, oxygen concentrator, etc.) in order to reduce the mortality rate and the infected. Simulations carried out reveal that the EKF seems to be more efficient according to the obtained results.
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