ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2022
Trend estimation and short-term forecasting of COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- A disease-agnostic approach to ensemble learning for infectious disease forecasting.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Developing Machine Learning Prediction Model for Daily Influenza Reported Cases Using Multichannel Surveillance Data - A City, Hubei Province, China, 2023-2025.China CDC weekly · 2025Article
- Improving outbreak forecasts through model augmentation.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Synthetic method of analogues for emerging infectious disease forecasting.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Forecasting the trend of tuberculosis incidence in Anhui Province based on machine learning optimization algorithm, 2013-2023.BMC pulmonary medicine · 2024Article
- Projecting COVID-19 intensive care admissions for policy advice, the Netherlands, February 2020 to January 2021.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2024Article
- Why are different estimates of the effective reproductive number so different? A case study on COVID-19 in Germany.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Learning from the past: A short term forecast method for the COVID-19 incidence curve.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Retrospective evaluation of real-time estimates of global COVID-19 transmission trends and mortality forecasts.PloS one · 2023Article
- A cross-national study of multilevel determinants on public fully vaccination against COVID-19.Health & place · 2023Article
- National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021.Communications medicine · 2022Article
- Agent-based modelling of reactive vaccination of workplaces and schools against COVID-19.Nature communications · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, many dashboards have emerged as useful tools to monitor its evolution, inform the public, and assist governments in decision-making. Here, we present a globally applicable method, integrated in a daily updated dashboard that provides an estimate of the trend in the evolution of the number of cases and deaths from reported data of more than 200 countries and territories, as well as 7-d forecasts. One of the significant difficulties in managing a quickly propagating epidemic is that the details of the dynamic needed to forecast its evolution are obscured by the delays in the identification of cases and deaths and by irregular reporting. Our forecasting methodology substantially relies on estimating the underlying trend in the observed time series using robust seasonal trend decomposition techniques. This allows us to obtain forecasts with simple yet effective extrapolation methods in linear or log scale. We present the results of an assessment of our forecasting methodology and discuss its application to the production of global and regional risk maps.
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