ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2022
Recurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforest.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed, 97 citations in OpenAlex.
- Article
- Soil moisture and ecosystem vegetation health effects on drought severity.Journal of advanced research · 2026Article
- Detecting and forecasting tipping points from sample variance alone.PNAS nexus · 2026Article
- Historical deforestation drives strong rainfall decline across the southern Amazon basin.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Frequent Droughts Reduce Carbon Stabilisation in Organo-Mineral Soils.Global change biology · 2026Article
- Amazonian trees under long-term drought exposure are more resilient to El Niño extreme.Communications earth & environment · 2026Article
- Amazon forest faces severe decline under the dual pressures of anthropogenic climate change and land-use change.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Observing network dynamics through sentinel nodes.Nature communications · 2025Article
- A multi-model based dataset of global atmospheric moisture source-sink relationships and atmospheric basins.Scientific data · 2025Article
- Gross primary productivity analyses suggest higher ENSO-mediated impacts in lowland cacao areas compared to mountain coffee regions in Latin America.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Warming of northern peatlands increases the global temperature overshoot challenge.One earth (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2025Article
- Amazon rainforest adjusts to long-term experimental drought.Nature ecology & evolution · 2025Article
- Applicability of spatial early warning signals to complex network dynamics.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Land system changes of terrestrial tipping elements on Earth under global climate pledges: 2000-2100.Scientific data · 2025Article
- Water deficit and storm disturbances co-regulate Amazon rainforest seasonality.Science advances · 2024Article
- Drought as an emergent driver of ecological transformation in the twenty-first century.Bioscience · 2024Article
- Article
- Critical slowing down of the Amazon forest after increased drought occurrence.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- The Andes-Amazon-Atlantic pathway: A foundational hydroclimate system for social-ecological system sustainability.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Anticipating regime shifts by mixing early warning signals from different nodes.Nature communications · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 5 institutions in 5 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Tipping elements are nonlinear subsystems of the Earth system that have the potential to abruptly shift to another state if environmental change occurs close to a critical threshold with large consequences for human societies and ecosystems. Among these tipping elements may be the Amazon rainforest, which has been undergoing intensive anthropogenic activities and increasingly frequent droughts. Here, we assess how extreme deviations from climatological rainfall regimes may cause local forest collapse that cascades through the coupled forest-climate system. We develop a conceptual dynamic network model to isolate and uncover the role of atmospheric moisture recycling in such tipping cascades. We account for heterogeneity in critical thresholds of the forest caused by adaptation to local climatic conditions. Our results reveal that, despite this adaptation, a future climate characterized by permanent drought conditions could trigger a transition to an open canopy state particularly in the southern Amazon. The loss of atmospheric moisture recycling contributes to one-third of the tipping events. Thus, by exceeding local thresholds in forest adaptive capacity, local climate change impacts may propagate to other regions of the Amazon basin, causing a risk of forest shifts even in regions where critical thresholds have not been crossed locally.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.