ArticleBMJ global health2022
Epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccination in Kenya.
Article in BMJ global health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Economic Evaluation of COVID-19 Immunization Strategies: A Systematic Review and Narrative Synthesis.Applied health economics and health policy · 2024Pooled it
- Influence of government policies on handwashing and vaccine uptake in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania to prevent and control COVID-19: a systematic review.Frontiers in public health · 2024Pooled it
- Economic evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination: A systematic review.Journal of global health · 2023Pooled it
- Health economics in Africa: historical perspectives, current challenges, and policy recommendations for sustainable healthcare financing and resource allocation.Cost effectiveness and resource allocation : C/E · 2026Review
- Balancing strategies in vaccination and mask-wearing for Chinese medical staff in post-COVID-19 era: a modelling study and cost-effectiveness analysis.Journal of global health · 2025Article
- Rethinking the evidence on COVID-19 in Africa.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2025Review
- Gaps and opportunities for data systems and economics to support priority setting for climate-sensitive infectious diseases in sub-Saharan Africa: A rapid scoping review.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Assessing the Economic Benefit of Mass COVID-19 Vaccination Program in Iran: A Real-World Modeling Study.International journal of health policy and management · 2025Article
- Active vaccine safety surveillance: Experience from a prospective cohort event monitoring study of COVID-19 vaccines in Kenya.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Cost of COVID-19 vaccine delivery in nine States in Nigeria via the U.S. Government Initiative for Global Vaccine Access.BMC health services research · 2024Article
- How does geographical diversity shape vaccine efficacy?Clinical and experimental vaccine research · 2024Review
- Profile: The Kenya Multi-Site Serosurveillance (KEMIS) collaboration.Gates open research · 2024Article
- Article
- Analyzing the emerging patterns of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants for the development of next-gen vaccine: An observational study.Health science reports · 2023Article
- Article
- Protection against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.4/5 variant following booster vaccination or breakthrough infection in the UK.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Qualitative Conceptual Content Analysis of COVID-19 Vaccine Administration Error Inquiries.Vaccines · 2023Article
- What, how and who: Cost-effectiveness analyses of COVID-19 vaccination to inform key policies in Nigeria.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Cost-effectiveness analysis of vaccination against COVID-19 in China.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Safety and immunogenicity of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine in adults in Kenya: a phase 1/2 single-blind, randomised controlled trial.Wellcome open research · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
25 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundA few studies have assessed the epidemiological impact and the cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in settings where most of the population had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 infection.
methodsWe conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccine in Kenya from a societal perspective over a 1.5-year time frame. An age-structured transmission model assumed at least 80% of the population to have prior natural immunity when an immune escape variant was introduced. We examine the effect of slow (18 months) or rapid (6 months) vaccine roll-out with vaccine coverage of 30%, 50% or 70% of the adult (>18 years) population prioritising roll-out in those over 50-years (80% uptake in all scenarios). Cost data were obtained from primary analyses. We assumed vaccine procurement at US$7 per dose and vaccine delivery costs of US$3.90-US$6.11 per dose. The cost-effectiveness threshold was US$919.11.
findingsSlow roll-out at 30% coverage largely targets those over 50 years and resulted in 54% fewer deaths (8132 (7914-8373)) than no vaccination and was cost saving (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, ICER=US$-1343 (US$-1345 to US$-1341) per disability-adjusted life-year, DALY averted). Increasing coverage to 50% and 70%, further reduced deaths by 12% (810 (757-872) and 5% (282 (251-317) but was not cost-effective, using Kenya's cost-effectiveness threshold (US$919.11). Rapid roll-out with 30% coverage averted 63% more deaths and was more cost-saving (ICER=US$-1607 (US$-1609 to US$-1604) per DALY averted) compared with slow roll-out at the same coverage level, but 50% and 70% coverage scenarios were not cost-effective.
interpretationWith prior exposure partially protecting much of the Kenyan population, vaccination of young adults may no longer be cost-effective.
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