Fish catch responses to Covid-19 disease curfews dependent on compliance, fisheries management, and environmental contexts.

The responses of small-scale coastal fisheries to pauses in effort and trade are an important test of natural resource management theories with implications for the many challenges of managing common-pool resources. Three Covid-19 curfews provided a natural experiment to evaluate fisheries responses adjacent a marine reserve and in a management system that restricted small-mesh drag nets. Daily catch weights in ten fish landings were compared before and after the curfew period to test the catch-only hypothesis that the curfew would reduce effort and increase catch per unit effort, per area yields, and incomes. Interviews with key informants indicated that fisheries effort and trade were disrupted but less so in the gear-restricted rural district than the more urbanized reserve landing sites. The expected increase in catches and incomes was evident in some sites adjacent the reserve but not the rural gear restricted fisheries. Differences in compliance and effort initiated by the curfew, changes in gear, and various negative environmental conditions are among the explanations for the variable catch responses. Rates of change over longer periods in CPUE were stable among marine reserve adjacent landing sites but declined faster after the curfew in the gear-restricted fisheries. Two landing sites nearest the southern end of the reserve displayed a daily 45 % increase in CPUE, 25-30 % increase in CPUA, and a 45-56 % increase in incomes. Results suggest that recovering stocks will succeed where authorities can achieve compliance, near marine reserves, and fisheries lacking additional environmental stresses.