ArticleInfectious diseases of poverty2022
Age-period-cohort analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis reported incidence, China, 2006-2020.
Article in Infectious diseases of poverty, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 79 papers.
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79 citing papers in PubMed, 121 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Comorbidity profiles and their impact on treatment outcomes in elderly patients with pulmonary tuberculosis: a single-center retrospective cohort study.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- The impact of modifiable social determinants on tuberculosis incidence: insights from a Bayesian spatiotemporal and counterfactual analysis.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Tuberculosis incidence and mortality trends in mainland China, 2004-2024: control program and elimination progress.Tropical medicine and health · 2026Article
- Spatiotemporal patterns, associated factors, and forecasting of pulmonary tuberculosis: a 19-year township-level case study in Zigong City, China.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Distinct comorbidity profiles and outcomes in asbestosis versus idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a 6-year prospective cohort study.BMC pulmonary medicine · 2026Article
- Factors associated with pulmonary tuberculosis in LTBI individuals screened from close contacts: a retrospective case-control study.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Drug resistance characteristics and risk factors in patients with retreated pulmonary tuberculosis: a 5-year retrospective study in Suzhou, China.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Multidimensional analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis epidemiological characteristics in Jining City from 2010 to 2024: an integrated study based on spatial clustering, trend regression, and age-period-cohort modeling.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Trends and age-period-cohort analysis of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis: a population-based study in Hunan Province, China, 2009-2023.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Changing epidemiological patterns of tuberculosis in China from 1990 to 2023: trends and future projections of drug-resistant and HIV-associated tuberculosis.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis among migrant populations and key predictors of migratory cases in Zhejiang Province.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- An interpretable AutoML-based prediction model for enteral nutrition intolerance in severe pulmonary tuberculosis patients and development of a clinical decision system.Frontiers in nutrition · 2026Article
- Trends and spatial distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis in China: a surveillance study.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- LncRNAAnnals of medicine · 2025Article
- Comparison of Interferon-Gamma Release Assay and Tuberculin Skin Test in Screening for Latent Tuberculous Infection Among Students from High-Burden Areas: A Prospective Head-to-Head Study in Qingdao, China.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025Article
- Trend dynamics of mumps prevalence among children aged 1-9 years in Changzhou, 2005-2023: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis.BMC public health · 2025Article
19 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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7 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
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Abstract
backgroundTuberculosis (TB) poses a severe public health challenge in China and worldwide. This study evaluated the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on reported incidence trends of TB based on population and refined the characteristics of high-risk groups.
methodsAggregate data that reported pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases from China Tuberculosis Management Information System (TBIMS) from 2006 to 2020 were used to analyze effect coefficients through the age-period-cohort (APC) model based on intrinsic estimator (IE) method, and converted them into relative risk (RR) to estimate trends.
resultsA total of 14.82 million cases of PTB were reported in China from 2006 to 2020, showing a continuous downward trend. The reporting rate increased with age by age group, with 70-74 years old being 2-3 times higher than that in 20-24 years old. APC analysis model showed that age effects were bimodal in 20-24 years old [RR = 2.29, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.73-3.03] and 70-74 years old (RR = 1.95, 95% CI: 1.67-2.27), and lower than the overall average in the groups under 15 years old. Stratified results showed that the risk was higher for women under age 40 than men and higher for men over 40. The risk was higher in urban than in rural areas under 30 years old and slightly higher in rural than in urban between 30 and 64 years old. The risk for 15-34 years old was significantly higher in the east than in other regions. The period effects showed a decreasing trend, and the risk was higher in rural in recent years. Except for cohorts born in 1961-1965 and 2001-2005, where the RR increased, the later the cohort was born, the lower the risk. The cohort 1926-1930 in eastern had the highest risk (RR = 3.49, 95% CI: 2.44-4.98).
conclusionsThe reported incidence of PTB continued to decline in China from 2006 to 2020. The young (20-24 years old) and the elderly (70-74 years old) were equally at high risk. There were differences in the age, period and cohort effects on PTB incidence among gender, urban-rural and regions. Our findings better reflected the characteristics of high-risk populations, thus contributing to the development of timely and effective intervention strategies, and providing clues for etiological research.
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