ArticleBMC infectious diseases2022
Estimation of timing of infection from longitudinal SARS-CoV-2 viral load data: mathematical modelling study.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Modeling Antibody Kinetics Post-mRNA Booster Vaccination and Protection Durations Against SARS-CoV-2 Infection.Journal of medical virology · 2025Article
- Defining the Critical Requisites for Accurate Simulation of SARS-CoV-2 Viral Dynamics: Patient Characteristics and Data Collection Protocol.Journal of medical virology · 2025Article
- Heterogeneous SARS-CoV-2 kinetics due to variable timing and intensity of immune responses.JCI insight · 2024Article
- Heterogeneous SARS-CoV-2 kinetics due to variable timing and intensity of immune responses.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Ensemble modeling of SARS-CoV-2 immune dynamics in immunologically naïve rhesus macaques predicts that potent, early innate immune responses drive viral elimination.Frontiers in immunology · 2024Article
- Vaccine and antiviral drug promise for preventing post-acute sequelae of COVID-19, and their combination for its treatment.Frontiers in immunology · 2024Article
- Review
- Analysis of the risk and pre-emptive control of viral outbreaks accounting for within-host dynamics: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Estimating the time of infection for African swine fever in pig farms in Korea.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundMultiple waves of the COVID-19 epidemic have hit most countries by the end of 2021. Most of those waves are caused by emergence and importation of new variants. To prevent importation of new variants, combination of border control and contact tracing is essential. However, the timing of infection inferred by interview is influenced by recall bias and hinders the contact tracing process.
methodsWe propose a novel approach to infer the timing of infection, by employing a within-host model to capture viral load dynamics after the onset of symptoms. We applied this approach to ascertain secondary transmission which can trigger outbreaks. As a demonstration, the 12 initial reported cases in Singapore, which were considered as imported because of their recent travel history to Wuhan, were analyzed to assess whether they are truly imported.
resultsOur approach suggested that 6 cases were infected prior to the arrival in Singapore, whereas other 6 cases might have been secondary local infection. Three among the 6 potential secondary transmission cases revealed that they had contact history to previously confirmed cases.
conclusionsContact trace combined with our approach using viral load data could be the key to mitigate the risk of importation of new variants by identifying cases as early as possible and inferring the timing of infection with high accuracy.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.